With crude oil having closed out the week of April 15 still above $40 per barrel, there is more hope that the worst has been seen in the energy sector. This hope has led investors back into the oil and gas sector for weeks now. In fact, some oil and gas stocks traded so low in the first six weeks of 2016 that they have since risen 30% to 50% — and many have even more than doubled off of their lows.
24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst upgrades and downgrades each day of the week to find value for our readers. By the end of each week, this generally adds up to hundreds of analyst views. Some of these calls cover stocks to buy, while others cover stocks to sell or to avoid. One interesting take is to view analyst calls by sector. It turns out that there are many analyst calls looking at opportunities in the oil and gas sector.
Several analyst calls in the oil and gas stocks from the week ending April 15, 2016, stood out above and beyond the rest of the pack. Another consideration here is that most Dow and S&P stocks are given implied upside of 8% to 15% when analysts upgrade or initiate coverage with positive ratings.
One word of caution: these should all be considered long-term views rather than mere trading opportunities. Another issue to consider is that if the price of oil heads back down toward $30 (or worse, even lower), then every one of these calls almost certainly will look extremely premature.
Investors also need to keep in mind that $40 oil, and maybe even $50 or higher for many second-tier producers, is still just enough to leave many companies operating in a zombie mode. Recent bankruptcies of Goodrich Petroleum and Energy XXI likely still will be mirrored by more bankruptcies ahead, and there are going to be more layoffs and cost cuts in the energy patch. This price will keep oil as a no-growth sector overall and will continue to generate very lackluster earnings (or worse).
With the verdict still out on how the weekend OPEC meeting in Doha was really seen by investors, there could be some rather large price swings by the time the week of April 18 to April 22 gets going. Those price swings may not be favorable either. Many of these oil stocks have bounced handily off of their lows, and short sellers have exited their bets against major oil stocks.
In a further attempt to balance any euphoria here, there was a key note issued by Morgan Stanley last week. The firm warned its clients that investors might want to be careful about the rally seen in some of the oil patch. They see many of the existing headwinds remaining in place. Rising production and/or a June OPEC disappointment remain as risks, and that was even before considering this weekend’s meeting. Credit Suisse also offered up a generally cautious view on refiners, which are supposed to be less exposed to oil price swings.
Chevron — Megacap!
Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) was featured as one of four top oil and gas stocks to buy this past week in a broader call by Jefferies. The oil giant has committed to keeping and growing its dividend, and in some cases it trades at a modest valuation discount to some of its mega-cap peers. The firm likes that Chevron is pursuing cost-saving initiatives and is looking to maximize its portfolio of projects on the books. Its Permian Basin assets are also viewed as rather strong.
Jefferies has a price target of $110 on Chevron, much higher than the $98.34 consensus analyst target. Chevron shares closed out the prior week at $96.33, and closed at $97.23 on Friday, versus a 52-week trading range of $69.58 to $112.20.
Anadarko Petroleum
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC) was raised to Overweight from Neutral with a $55 price target at JPMorgan on Friday. This was versus a prior $49.46 closing price, and investors felt rather unenthusiastic on the low upside here because shares closed down 1.1% at $48.91 on Friday. Still, the lower price would imply upside of over 12% if JPMorgan’s target is hit.
Anadarko has a consensus price target of $58.50 and a 52-week range of $28.16 to $95.94. Its market cap is $25 billion.
Chesapeake Energy — With Caveats!
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) is being featured with a caveat: this was an analyst upgrade, but not to Buy. After catching a break on its credit agreement terms the prior week, Chesapeake was raised to Hold from Sell at Tudor Pickering early last week. That may seem unenthusiastic, but this does at least remove one more of the most negative sell ratings on Wall Street. Its stock rose 19.7% to close at $4.50 on Monday, but then shares rose another 34% to close at $6.05 on Tuesday after the upgrade.
Chesapeake’s closing price on Friday was $6.03, and its 52-week trading range is $1.50 to $16.98. Chesapeake has a consensus target price of $3.92, up only slightly from the $3.86 consensus target earlier in the week.
Continental Resources
Continental Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLR) was raised to Buy from Hold on Wednesday with a price target of $40 by Deutsche Bank in a call of four exploration and production stocks to buy. This compares to a $33.75 prior close. If Deutsche Bank’s target is hit, then there is over 18% upside left here.
Continental Resources closed at $33.71 on Friday, and it has a consensus target price of $33.52 and a 52-week range of $13.94 to $53.65. It has a market cap of $12.5 billion.
Devon Energy
Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN) snagged a late-week upgrade on Friday. It was raised to Buy from Hold at Evercore ISI with a price target that was raised to $40 from $30. Thursday’s closing price of $31.35 implied upside of 28% if that target proves to be correct. Devon Energy closed up only five cents at $31.40 on Friday.
Devon’s late-week pricing action implies that there was almost no bullishness viewed from the call itself, if not an outright disdain or lack of enthusiasm for perhaps being late to the party. Devon Energy has a consensus price target of only $32.38.
The 52-week trading range is $18.07 to $70.48, and Devon has a market cap of $16 billion.
QEP Resources
QEP Resources Inc. (NYSE: QEP) was started as Overweight with a $17 price target at JPMorgan last Tuesday. This was versus a $14.42 prior close, and its shares ended the week at $14.56. This leaves implied upside of roughly 17%, if the analysts making this call are proven to be correct.
The consensus analyst price target is $17.13, and the 52-week range is $8.54 to $23.90. The market cap is rather small at $3.1 billion.
Other key oil, gas and energy stories from this past week worth a look:
- Wells Fargo Downgrades Marathon Oil
- 4 Exploration and Production Stocks to Buy
- U.S. Will Become #2 Solar Market in the World in 2016
- NOV Slashed Its Dividend 90%!
- IEA Sees Oil Market Heading Toward a Balance
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