Energy

How the Major RBC Downgrade of Chesapeake Stacks Up Against Peers

Jon C. Ogg

Published: June 9, 2016 11:40 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 7:00 am

Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) is very far from being a company without controversy. Whether you want to go back to the days of the late Aubrey McClendon or go to the bust of oil and gas prices from late in 2014 into early 2016, many investors and analysts alike worry about the future of Chesapeake.

RBC Capital Markets downgraded Chesapeake to Underperform on Thursday from a prior unenthusiastic rating of Sector Perform. Investors know that some research sides of brokerage firms do not have a formal Sell rating, but they know the buzzwords like Underweight and Underperform translate to that equivalent Sell rating.

What stands out here is that Chesapeake was given a $5 price target. That compares with a prior $5.00 closing price. Chesapeake Energy’s consensus analyst price target was $4.56. Its 52-week trading range of $1.50 to $12.95 should also show just how volatile this stock can be.

RBC projects that Chesapeake is unlikely to generate much free cash flow through 2020. That is not due to pricing of natural gas as much as it is due to Chesapeake’s upcoming debt payments. RBC further noted that Chesapeake’s opportunities to add value in a rising commodity market are more limited than its peers.

If Chesapeake cannot add value versus peers, even if prices rise, how many investors are going to be that excited about chasing a company that is still deemed to be quite leveraged.

RBC pointed out that Chesapeake has, at least so far, been successful in reducing its debt. The firm also pointed out that further transformation is needed to position this company in a manner that it can still thrive.

As most investors are well aware, Chesapeake’s finances went from decent to questionable in recent years. Its cash and short-term investments went from $4.1 billion at the end of 2014 down to $825 million at the end of 2015. Revenues dropped to $12.76 billion in 2015 from $23.1 billion in 2014. More asset sales will raise cash, but they will also limit future revenues if they were being used operationally.

24/7 Wall St. wanted to see what other calls have been made elsewhere of late.

On June 4, S&P maintained a Hold rating with a $6 price target (versus a $4.09 prior close). S&P sees a per share loss of $0.46 in 2016.

Moody’s said at the end of May:

Chesapeake Energy Corporation’s Caa2 CFR incorporates its very weak cash flow generation capacity at our commodity price estimates relative to its high debt levels resulting in an unsustainable capital structure.

Also at the end of May, Evercore ISI maintained a Hold rating and a $6 price target. Its view was inside a Permian report and it said:

We have updated our model to reflect last week’s 8-K filling indicating that CHK has and will exchange approximately 37.1 million shares of common stock (5.2% of shares outstanding) for the following: $81.5 million aggregate principal amount of its 2.5% contingent convertible senior notes due 2037 (with May 2017 put rights), $26.5 million aggregate principal amount of its 6.5% senior notes due 2017, $7.5 million aggregate principal amount of its 2.25% contingent convertible senior notes due 2038 (with 2018 put rights) and $50.5 million aggregate principal amount of its floating rate senior notes due 2019.

Earlier in May, it was SunTrust Robinson Humphrey that maintained its own Buy rating on Chesapeake Energy. Its price target was $8 after the capital raise, and the upside was described as follows:

Chesapeake announced further debt for equity swaps (~15% discount) along with likely settling hundreds of royalty lawsuits. Both transactions signify further progress made in the company cleaning up its balance sheet. While critics likely will contend that each of the latest events is a small piece versus total debt/lawsuits, we suggest each step helps. We continue to further contend that Chesapeake remains asset heavy with over 8 million acres, which should easily help cover any upcoming required payments.

On May 5, Merrill Lynch maintained its Underperform rating and $5 price objective. The share price was about $5.65 at that time. The firm said:

Our price objective of $5.00 share is based on a 5-year outlook which assumes a 5.5x DACF multiple and a commodity deck of $75 WTI. The multiple is based on a finite timeline to delivery which is supported by core Net Asset Value.

It turns out that RBC’s downgrade is winning over the other calls out there, at least on Thursday. Chesapeake’s late-morning trading showed that shares were down almost 6% at $4.67 on 25 million shares even before the noon hour.