The week of June 17 ended up a down week after the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 200 points. The fears of what may happen in a Brexit scenario are meeting the notion that the Federal Reserve just cannot raise interest rates anywhere near a normalization. Still, oil remained above $48 per barrel and investors keep proving over and over that they want to buy dips in the stock market.
The oil and gas components of the stock market, as well as pretty much anything tied to energy, have bounced handily from their lows. The early dog days of 2016 may become a distant memory for many investors. That being said, many of these stocks have seen their shares rise 50%, 75% or even over 100% from their lows. Investors and traders alike should know that gains of this sort are not normal. Not at all. It also could mean that some of the oil and gas stocks are no bargain at all.
24/7 Wall St. tracked numerous upgrades and downgrades, as well as new coverage initiations, in the June 17 week. There was an abnormal amount of these analyst calls in the oil and gas sector; more than 20 real upgrades and downgrades were seen. Some Wall Street analysts still think some of these energy companies offer incredible long-term upside. But many analysts also missed the chance to get clients out high and to get them in close to the bottom.
24/7 Wall St. would offer readers a harsh warning here. If oil falls back under $40, or if the stock market decides to tank again, these positive calls are going to look silly. Also, many analyst calls were first defending the oil and gas sector even a year ago at far higher stock and oil prices.
OK, so now that you have been warned about some of the most obvious risks in energy stocks for now, here are two dozen oil and gas stocks with recent analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations seen in the energy sector. Due to timing and other constraints, most of the detail from these calls has been kept very brief.
BP PLC (NYSE: BP) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup on June 16. If BP’s dividend yield remains above 7%, which BP itself has said it will resist a dividend cut unless no options exist, then BP is considered cheap. BP closed at $31.15 in New York trading on the prior day, but BP was trading up almost 0.5% on Thursday in London trading and Friday’s closing price had BP up at $32.75. BP’s American depositary shares have a consensus analyst price target of almost $35 and a 52-week trading range of $30.07 to $42.20.
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (NYSE: DO) was started with a Buy rating at Merrill Lynch on June 13. Diamond Offshore was given a $34 price objective, compared with a $24.32 prior close, and it had a consensus price target of $20.61 at that time, with a 52-week range of $14.18 to $29.21. Merrill Lynch cited a strong balance sheet, and free cash flow acting as a shield against harder times, as well as the sector’s highest backlog coverage and M&A potential to help replenish an aging fleet. Diamond Offshore closed out the week at $24.75.
ENSCO PLC (NYSE: ESV) was given the equivalent of a new “Sell” rating on June 13. Merrill Lynch reinstated ENSCO with an Underperform rating and assigned a $9 price objective, down about 10% under the $10.53 prior closing price. ENSCO shares did not initially react to the call at all, as the British offshore contract drilling services provider saw its U.S.-listed shares rise 1% to $10.64 immediately after the call. But even a 3.6% rally on Friday saw it close out the week at $10.30. Merrill Lynch cited ENSCO’s older fleet, despite adding leverage to build new rigs, as well as its exposure to a weak jackup market and low backlog coverage. The stock has a 52-week range of $7.25 to $23.17.
Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley on June 13. Occidental’s prior closing price was $75.45, and the shares were down only six cents after the downgrade was seen. Perhaps it is such a strong recovery off of the bottoming out of oil that had been in the shares in 2016 that limited the reaction here. Occidental Petroleum has a consensus price target of $78.04 and a 52-week range of $58.24 to $79.75.
Laredo Petroleum Inc. (NYSE: LPI) had an analyst day that was viewed differently by different firms. Laredo Petroleum was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at Iberia Capital on June 14, and the firm assigned a $14 price target, versus an $11.04 prior close. On the same day, Merrill Lynch reiterated its Underperform rating and $8 price objective. Laredo Petroleum had an $11.65 prior close and a 52-week range of $3.90 to $14.99 going into that call. A gain of 4.25% on Friday let it close out the week at $11.28.
Cheniere Energy Inc. (NYSEMKT: LNG) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotia Capital on June 14. Very little detail was made available on this call. Cheniere ended the week with a 4.3% gain on Friday at $34.51, and it has a 52-week range of $22.80 to $74.48 and a consensus analyst target of $56.70.
Oil and Gas Upgrades and Positive Calls
Antero Midstream Partners L.P. (NYSE: AM) was raised to Buy from Hold with a $29 price target (versus a $24.55 close) at Stifel on June 16.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (NYSE: CNQ) was raised from already being an Outperform to the firm’s Top Pick list at RBC Capital Markets on June 16.
Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. (NASDAQ: CRZO) was started with a Buy rating and was given a $48 price target (versus a $36.87 close) at Stifel.
Cenovus Energy Inc. (NYSE: CVE) reacted positively to a Morgan Stanley upgrade on June 13. The firm raised it to Overweight from Equal Weight, driving the Canadian energy player’s shares marginally higher to $14.78 after the call was made. Still, even with a 2% gain on Friday, the stock only closed at $14.04 for the week. Cenovus Energy’s 52-week range is $9.10 to $17.34 and its consensus analyst target is $15.98.
Denbury Resources Inc. (NYSE: DNR) was raised to Hold from Sell at Stifel on June 15.
Genesis Energy L.P. (NYSE: GEL) was reiterated as Buy at Janney on June 15, but the firm raised its fair value estimate to $44 from $32.
Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) saw its price target raised to $45 from $37 at Scotia Howard Weil on June 15. Halliburton closed out the week at $44.11, with a consensus target price of $46.74 and a 52-week range of $26.64 to $46.69.
Hi-Crush Partners L.P. (NYSE: HCLP) was raised to Strong Buy from Market Perform at Raymond James on June 15, and it now has a $17 price target, versus a $11.93 prior closing price.
Parsley Energy Inc. (NYSE: PE) was started with a Buy rating and was assigned a $32 price target (versus a $25.97 close) at Wunderlich on June 16.
Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD) had a zany week after raising cash to buy Permian Basin acreage from Devon. Merrill Lynch not only reiterated its Buy rating on June 17, it raised its price objective to $200 from $185 (with shares close to $153 and versus a $190 consensus analyst price target). Wunderlich had a Buy rating, but it lowered its price target to $176 on June 16. RBC’s initiation of Pioneer Natural with an Outperform rating and $160 target from June 8 (with shares at $142.25 at the time) is looking rather smart now.
RSP Permian Inc. (NYSE: RSPP) was started with an Outperform rating at Imperial Capital on June 15, and the firm issued a $45 price target, versus a $34.72 prior closing price.
Mixed and Cautious Oil and Gas Analyst Calls
Gulfport Energy Corp. (NASDAQ: GPOR) was downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at KLR Group on June 13. Its $34 price target compares with a $32.69 prior closing price. It had a consensus price target of $34.43 and a 52-week range of $20.21 to $45.66. Gulfport closed the week at $32.92.
HollyFrontier Corp. (NYSE: HFC) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight and the price target was cut to $26 from $41 (versus a $24.76 close) at Morgan Stanley.
National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NYSE: NOV) was maintained with a Sector Perform rating at Scotia Capital on June 15, but the firm raised its target price to $37 from $32.
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight and the price target was cut to $90 from $105 (versus a $79.43 close) at Morgan Stanley this week. Apparently Warren Buffett buying more shares doesn’t seem to matter. Phillips 66 has a consensus price target of $90.31 and a 52-week range of $69.79 to $94.12.
Talen Energy Corp. (NYSE: TLN) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $14 price target (versus a $13.60 close) at Barclays.
Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse on June 15.
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