Why Exxon Earnings Tumbled 59%

From early April to early June this year, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for September delivery added about $12 a barrel, rising to just over $50, and it looked like the market for crude was finally picking up. Since then, the September futures contract has given back $10 a barrel, and there is no sign that the slide is slowing. To make matters worse for integrated oil companies, refining margins slipped and gasoline inventories remain stubbornly high for this time of year. None of this provides a boost for oil and gas producers’ second-quarter earnings.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) reported estimated second-quarter 2016 results before markets opened Friday. The integrated oil and gas giant posted quarterly diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.41 on revenues of $57.69 billion. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $1.00 on revenues of $74.11 billion. Second-quarter results also compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $0.64 on revenues of $60.41 billion.

Second-quarter profits declined by 59%, from $4.19 billion in the year-ago quarter to $1.7 billion. In the U.S. upstream division, the net loss rose from $47 million in the second quarter of last year to $514 million. Net profit in Exxon’s international upstream business declined sharply from $2.1 billion a year ago to $808 million.

In the downstream division, earnings tumbled from $1.5 billion to $825 million. Weaker margins were the culprit as volumes increased.

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Liquids production in the quarter increased by 39,000 barrels a day to 2.33 million barrels a day. U.S. production rose by 27,000 barrels a day to 495,000 barrels. Natural gas production slipped by 366 million cubic feet per day year-over-year to 9.76 billion cubic feet. U.S. natural gas production fell by 56 million cubic feet per day to 3.1 billion cubic feet.

Capital spending totaled $5.16 billion in the second quarter, compared with $8.26 billion in the second quarter of last year. U.S. upstream spending was cut by more than half, from $2.1 billion to $914 million, and total upstream capex fell from $6.75 billion a year ago to $3.92 billion.

U.S. price realizations on crude oil fell from $54.06 a barrel in the second quarter of 2015 to $37.97, and natural gas realizations fell from $2.31 per thousand cubic feet to $1.74. Internationally, realizations dropped from $57.63 per barrel of crude oil to $45.48 and natural gas realizations fell from $6.49 to $4.06. European natural gas realizations fell from $7.06 to $4.35.

Exxon did not report any share repurchases in the second quarter, but the company paid dividends totaling $3.1 million.

Rex Tillerson, Exxon’s chairman and CEO, said:

While our financial results reflect a volatile industry environment, ExxonMobil remains focused on business fundamentals, cost discipline and advancing selective new investments across the value chain to extend our competitive advantage. The corporation benefits from scale and integration, which provide the financial flexibility to invest in attractive opportunities and grow long-term shareholder value.”

The company did not provide guidance in its press release, but analysts are expecting third-quarter EPS of $0.83 on revenues of $68.47 billion, compared with EPS of $1.01 and revenues of $67.34 billion in the third quarter of 2015. For the full year, analysts are looking for EPS of $2.79 on revenues of $240.75 billion.

The consensus third-quarter estimates are almost surely out the window. Crude prices have dropped back below $41 a barrel Friday morning and, barring a major outage either in production or refining, the price of crude looks to remain well off the $50 a barrel level.

Exxon’s shares traded up about 2.5% in Friday’s premarket, at $87.95 in a 52-week range of $66.55 to $95.55. Analysts had a 12-month price target of $92.50 before the report.

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