Exxon Earnings a Function of Company’s Massive Size

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) reported estimated first-quarter 2016 results before markets opened Friday. The integrated oil and gas giant posted quarterly diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43 on revenues of $48.71 billion. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $1.17 on revenues of $67.62 billion. First-quarter results also compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $0.31 on revenues of $48.14 billion.

First-quarter profits declined by 63%, from $4.94 billion in the year-ago quarter to $1.81 billion. In the U.S. upstream division, the net loss rose from $52 million in the first quarter of last year to $832 million. Net profit in Exxon’s international upstream business declined sharply from $2.2 billion a year ago to $756 million. Total net loss for the quarter totaled $76 million, down from a net profit of nearly $3 billion in the first quarter of 2015.

In the downstream division, earnings fell from $1.67 billion to $906 million. Weaker margins get most of the blame, but refined product sales were down by 480,000 barrels a day.

Liquids production in the quarter increased by 261,000 barrels a day to 2.54 million barrels a day. U.S. production rose by 28,000 barrels a day to 500,000 barrels. Natural gas production slipped by 1.1 billion cubic feet per day year-over-year to 10.72 billion cubic feet. U.S. natural gas production fell by 60 million cubic feet per day to 3.16 billion cubic feet.
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Capital spending totaled $5.13 billion in the first quarter, compared with $7.7 billion in the first quarter of last year. U.S. upstream spending was cut by nearly half, from $2.12 billion to $1.05 billion, and total upstream capital expenditures fell from $6.42 billion a year ago to $3.98 billion.

Exxon repurchased 9 million shares of common stock at a gross cost of $726 million in the first quarter. Adding in dividend payments of $0.73 per share, the company distributed $3.1 billion to shareholders in the quarter.

Rex Tillerson, Exxon’s chairman and CEO, said:

The organization continues to respond effectively to challenging industry conditions, capturing enhancements to operational performance and creating margin uplift despite low prices. The scale and integrated nature of our cash flow provide competitive advantage and support consistent strategy execution.

The company did not provide guidance in its press release, but analysts expect second-quarter EPS of $0.52 on revenues of $55.78 billion, compared with EPS of $1.00 and revenues of $74.11 billion in the second quarter of 2015. For the full year, analysts are looking for EPS of $2.36 on revenues of $234.47 billion.

As Tillerson noted, Exxon’s massive scale gives it a competitive advantage, as long as it doesn’t make any huge strategic mistake. Chances of the company making such a mistake are minuscule.

Exxon’s shares traded up about 0.3% in Friday’s premarket, at $88.26 in a 52-week range of $66.55 to $90.09. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of $82.11 before the report.