Energy
15 Major Oil and Gas Analyst Upgrades After OPEC Production Cuts
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The week of November 28 to December 2 was less robust in the equity markets than in prior weeks since the election, but do not dare tell that to the oil patch. NYMEX Crude went from under $46 on Tuesday to over $49 on Wednesday, when OPEC announced its first major oil production cut in eight years. Crude even closed out the week above $51.50 and is now within striking distance of highs not seen since early this summer.
What really stood out after the OPEC news was that many key brokerage firms made upgrades to the oil patch stocks. Others hiked price targets, even if their ratings were kept the same. 24/7 Wall St. tracked 15 of these key upgrades made after OPEC’s production cuts were announced.
24/7 Wall St. warned its readers this past week that some of these shares may have rocketed up too far too fast with gains of 15% to 30% in a single day. OPEC nations have a history of cheating on their quotas and on not living up to certain cuts. Maybe this time is different, and again the market reaction was more than amazing. One issue that helped drive the belief that this time might be different is that non-OPEC countries (Russia, Oman, Azerbaijan and Mexico) are also committed to participate in the deal.
Before getting into the stock calls, there were many macroeconomic calls and oil price calls made by some of the key firms on Wall Street.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that OPEC’s first production cut in eight years reflects a changed environment for oil producers. Goldman Sachs now sees OPEC’s short-duration cut supported by compelling economics and how the focus on drawing down inventories should reduce price volatility but backwardation could reinforce the lower-for-longer theme. Credit Suisse thinks this OPEC production cut is real and that it will significantly impact 2017 balances and should push oil prices closer to its green “bull scenario” after offshore drillers traded up 15% to 25% on the back of OPECs announced production cut.
Stifel Nicolaus raised its 2017 NYMEX oil price forecast by 10% to $55 per barrel based upon OPEC’s cut. The firm’s 2017 estimate was said to be 6% above the forward strip and 3% above consensus estimates. Stifel had originally been concerned about downside price risks in oil. Cowen now sees U.S. oil producers being poised to boost output by 2% to 4% in 2017 based upon rising prices amid the OPEC deal.
Jefferies said that there will be undoubted skepticism over whether the targets will be fulfilled, but the firm sees the production cuts as a move by oil-producing countries to raise the floor on the crude oil price. Wells Fargo noted that the OPEC cuts likely will put in a floor in oil prices, and the strong share price performance for the offshore sector (10% to 30% rally in two days) has most stocks discounting a strong recovery scenario — which makes stock selection in the group more difficult.
Here are 15 analyst upgrades and price targets hiked seen in the aftermath of the OPEC production cuts. We have also seen some downgrades or cautious calls made, with three noted in particular.
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC) was raised to Buy from Hold with a $86 price target at Stifel on December 1. Anadarko shares were last trading at $69.13 on Friday, more or less in line with the price when this call was made, but this was just a $60 stock on Tuesday. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $74.08 and a 52-week trading range of $28.16 to $71.10. The company has a market cap of over $38 billion.
BP PLC (NYSE: BP) was raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse on December 1, and the overseas price target was raised to 500p from 480p (versus 460p before the call) and BP’s American depositary shares were up over 1% at $35.50 after that call’s impact was seen, versus about $33.50 on Tuesday. Credit Suisse noted that BP has a better than expected cash cycle that should squash any doubts about its ability to pay that high dividend. Shares of BP were trading at $35.58 late on Friday, with a consensus analyst price target of $37.29 and a 52-week trading range of $27.01 to $37.28. The company has a total market cap of nearly $116 billion.
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (NYSE: COG) saw Ladenburg Thalmann raise its target price to $32 from $30 on December 2, which is significantly higher than the $22.78 price late on Friday. The company has a market cap of $10 billion. Cabot’s shares have a consensus price target of $27.90 and a 52-week range of $14.88 to $26.74.
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) may be more gas than oil, but Ladenburg Thalmann raised its target price to $7.50 from $6 on December 2. This call was far less impressive than some, with Chesapeake Energy shares trading at $7.20 late on Friday, but it was still higher and the stock was closer to $6.25 on Tuesday. It has a consensus price target of $7.46 and a 52-week range of $1.50 to $8.15. The market cap is $6 billion.
Whiting Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: WLL) was raised to Buy from Hold with a $15 price target at Stifel on December 1. Then it also saw Ladenburg Thalmann raise its target price to $15 from $13 on December 2. Whiting Petroleum shares traded at $12.56 on Friday, versus about $9.50 on Tuesday. The company has a market cap of $3.6 billion. The consensus price target is $11.96, and the 52-week range is $3.35 to $15.16.
Concho Resources Inc. (NYSE: CXO) saw Ladenburg Thalmann raise its price target to $175 from $165 (shares were closer to $142 on Friday, compared with about $127 on Tuesday) on December 2. The shares have a consensus analyst target of $156.03 and a 52-week range of $69.94 to $146.87. The total market cap is $20 billion.
Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR), the exploration and production player in crude oil and natural gas giant under Harold Hamm, saw its price target raised by Ladenburg Thalmann to $68 from $56 from December 2. Its shares were last trading at $57.16 on Friday, but it traded down under $48.00 on Tuesday. The stock has a consensus price target of $57.15 and a 52-week range of $43.83 to $60.30. The market cap is $21 billion.
EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) was raised to Buy From Hold by Stifel on December 1. Its shares traded at $104.30 on Friday. The company has a market cap of $60 billion. The consensus price target is $107.51, and the 52-week range is $57.15 to $107.47.
Energy Transfer Equity L.P. (NYSE: ETE) was reiterated as Outperform but the price target was raised to $22 from $20 at RBC Capital Markets on December 2. The shares closed trading at $16.70 on Friday. The consensus price target is $19.28. The 52-week trading range is $4.00 to $19.99. The company has a market cap of $17.5 billion.
Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) was started with an Outperform rating and assigned a $64 price target at Bernstein on December 2. Wells Fargo said on December 1 that Halliburton remained one of two top picks in the oil patch. Halliburton shares traded at $54.04 late on Friday, versus about $48.00 on Tuesday. The company has a market cap of $47 billion. The consensus price target is $55.81, and the 52-week range is $27.64 to $54.92.
Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE: NBR) was started as Outperform at Bernstein with a $19.50 price target on December 2. That was immediately before Nabors issued more debt. Shares traded at $16.88 on Friday, versus about $13 on Tuesday, with a consensus price target of $15.28 and a 52-week range of $4.93 to $17.33. The total market cap is nearly $5 billion.
Oasis Petroleum Inc. (NYSE: OAS) saw its price target raised by Ladenburg Thalmann to $18 from $14 on December 2. The shares were last trading at $15.02 on Friday, up from $11.75 on Tuesday. The consensus price target is $14.63, and a 52-week range is $3.40 to $15.76. The company has a market cap of $3.5 billion.
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. (NYSE: SXL) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform with a $32 price target (versus a $22.52 prior close) at RBC Capital Markets on December 2. Sunoco Logistics traded at $23.20 late in the day on Friday, and it has a market cap of nearly $8 billion. The consensus price target is $31.35, and the 52-week range is $15.43 to $31.49.
U.S. Silica Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SLCA) saw two calls on December 2: Cowen reiterated its Outperform rating and raised its price target to $59 from $52, and Scotia Howard Weil raised its target price to $55 from $46, but that was on a reiterated Sector Perform call. Wells Fargo said on December 1 that U.S. Silica was one of its two top oil picks in a sector, though upside is harder to view now. Shares traded at $51.46 on Friday, with a consensus analyst target of $52.42 and a 52-week range of $13.54 to $52.14. The total market cap is $4 billion.
Weatherford International PLC (NYSE: WFT) was started as Outperform with a $7 price target at Bernstein on December 2. The shares were trading at $5.11 late on Friday, but this was under $4.50 just on Tuesday of this week, prior to OPEC’s cuts being announced. The consensus price target is $7.43. The 52-week range is $3.73 to $10.53. The company has a market cap of $5 billion.
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Not all analysts were out with pom-poms after the OPEC cut. There were even some downgrades, but the moves this week in the oil patch were massive. Now we just have to hope that OPEC and the non-OPEC nations who pledged to make their production cuts either live up to the pledges or at least come close. History needs to be considered.
To prove the point that not all was universally loved, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) had two key calls on December 2: Independent Research raised its price target to $90 from $85 while maintaining a Hold rating, and BMO Capital Markets started it with a Market Perform rating and a $78 price target. Exxon shares were trading at $87.73 on Friday afternoon, with a consensus price target of $88.52 and a 52-week range of $71.55 to $95.55. The company has a total market cap of $364 billion.
Elsewhere, shares of National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NYSE: NOV) were downgraded to Sell from Accumulate, and Oceaneering International Inc. (NYSE: OII) also was cut to Sell from Accumulate at Seaport Global on December 1.
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