Energy
Oil Down 5% in a Week: Buy These 4 Mega Cap Stocks on the Dip
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Any way you look at it, the oil rally that began back in June was a strong move for the black gold, lifting prices 40%. Like any rally, there are traders ready to take profits, and all they needed were some recent reports on sector status, especially this week’s report from the International Energy Agency on short-term demand and U.S. shale and the API reports on the strong builds in crude inventories.
The real news is that the IEA lowered its demand forecast for both this year and next. The agency lowered its 2017 forecast by 50,000 barrels per day, which may not seem like much, but is the result of a more recent slowdown. The agency says that demand in the fourth quarter will likely end up being 311,000 barrels per day lower than it previously thought.
While that currently may temper the enthusiasm, many analysts and strategist feel that world supply and demand is tight, and any macro event of size could tilt that balance in a big way. Toss in the potential for continued production cuts by OPEC, which could be announced later this month, and prices could head higher again.
It makes sense for investors to add to or initiate positions in the major integrated oil companies that offer long-term stability and consistent dividends. These four are rated Buy at Merrill Lynch and make good sense now.
Chevron
This integrated giant is a safer way for investors looking to stay or get long the energy sector, and it has big Permian Basin exposure. Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is a U.S.-based integrated oil and gas company with worldwide operations in exploration and production, refining and marketing, transportation and petrochemicals.
The company sports a sizable dividend and has a solid place in the sector when it comes to natural gas and liquefied natural gas. Some on Wall Street estimate the company will have a compound annual growth rate of over 5% for the next five years.
The company reported solid earnings for the third quarter, and the analysts have noted that the Permian Basin remains a key source of capital flexibility and is a key issue behind their relative preference for Chevron over some of the other majors.
Chevron shareholders are paid an outstanding 3.74% dividend. The Merrill Lynch price target for the stock is $125, and the Wall Street consensus price objective is $124.18. The shares traded Thursday morning at $115.25 apiece.
Exxon Mobil
This top Wall Street energy pick is still down almost 20% in 2017. Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) is the world’s largest international integrated oil and gas company. It explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, South America, Europe, Africa and elsewhere.
The company also manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics, and specialty products, and it transports and sells crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products.
For 75 years in a row, Exxon has raised its dividend on a split-adjusted basis. Thanks to the company’s vertically integrated model in the oil and gas business, its profitability doesn’t suffer through commodity price swings like a company that’s a pure play in one segment of the value chain.
Shareholders receive a nifty 3.79% dividend. The $94 Merrill Lynch price objective is much higher than the consensus price target of $83.93. The stock traded Thursday morning at $80.75 a share.
24/7 Wall St.Occidental Petroleum
This is one of the highest yielding domestic stocks in the energy sector. Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) is an oil-levered multinational organization with principal business segments in oil and gas and in chemicals. The oil and gas segment explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas, primarily in the U.S. Permian Basin, Colombia, Bolivia, Libya, Oman, Qatar and Yemen. The chemicals segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals, vinyls and performance chemicals.
With a rock-solid balance sheet and a commitment to dividend coverage, investors look safe for now. Occidental has paid quarterly cash dividends continuously since 1975, and it has increased its dividend each year since 2002.
Merrill Lynch analysts noted this positive in a recent report:
Permian growth looks likely to exceed guidance over the next 3 years. Well results have moved to sector leading in key operating areas, accelerating the bridge to the chief financial officers pledge to break even to mid 2018 at $50 oil, driving a step change in free cash flow, above ‘major’ peers and underpinning a re-rating in dividend yield.
Shareholders are paid a huge 4.62% dividend. Merrill Lynch recently lifted its price target to $76 from $70. That compares with a consensus target of $65.12. The stock was last seen trading at $66.85 per share.
24/7 Wall St.Royal Dutch Shell
This company has survived the seesaw in oil pricing as good as or better than any other major integrated stock. Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE: RDS-A) operates as an independent oil and gas company worldwide through its Upstream and Downstream segments. The company explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids.
Royal Dutch Shell also converts natural gas to liquids to provide fuels and other products; markets and trades crude oil and natural gas; transports oil; liquefies and transports gas; extracts bitumen from mined oil sands and converts it to synthetic crude oil; and generates electricity from wind energy. In addition, the company engages in the conversion of crude oil into a range of refined products, including gasoline, diesel, heating oil, aviation fuel, marine fuel, liquefied natural gas (LNG) for transport, lubricants, bitumen and sulphur; production and sale of petrochemicals for industrial customers; refining; trading and supply; pipelines and marketing; and alternative energy businesses.
Shell’s fourth consecutive quarter of dividend coverage at lower oil prices helps reaffirm the positive investment case for the company. Earnings have continued to surprise Wall Street to the upside, and analysts are bullish on the company’s cost reduction targets.
Investors are paid a huge 5.12% dividend. Merrill Lynch has set its price objective at $69. The consensus figure is $67.44, and the shares were trading at $61.80.
Shares of these four mega-cap companies still offer value and potential upside. Add in the long-time consistent dividend pay outs, and the stocks make sense for all accounts looking for energy exposure but with a larger degree of safety.
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