Energy production in the U.S. will increase by 24% by 2035 while U.S. energy consumption will rise by just 3% in the same period. U.S. energy production as a percentage of consumption will rise from 84% in 2012 to 101% in 2035.

By 2027, natural gas will replace oil as the leading fuel in U.S. energy consumption. Natural gas consumption is slated to rise from 30% today to 35% and oil consumption is forecast to fall from 36% today to 29%. And as natural gas consumption rises to replace oil and coal consumption, carbon emissions drop by 6% to levels not seen since the late 1980s.

These and a host of other data points are included in the section on the U.S. from the Energy Outlook 2035 document published by BP plc (NYSE: BP). According to BP, demand for energy will rise 41% between now and 2035 with emerging economies accounting for nearly all the growth. The slowest growth globally will come in transportation fuel which will continue to be dominated by oil but also show increased use of natural gas, biofuels, and electricity.

In the U.S. energy consumed for transportation fuel will drop by 18% and oil’s share of that consumption will drop from 95% today to 83% as biofuels and natural gas capture that 8% share. The U.S. share of global energy demand drops from 18% to 13% by 2035 and China’s share rises from 22% to 27%.

U.S. tight (shale) oil production will triple to 4.5 million barrels a day in 2035 and shale gas production will double to 65 billion cubic feet per day. Oil imports will fall 75% by 2017 and the U.S. will be a net exporter of natural gas by the same year.

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