An improving global economic forecast for 2015 has led to projected demand growth for crude oil of 1.4 million barrels a day. That was up from estimated growth of 1.2 million barrels a day in 2014. Virtually the entire increase, 1.2 million barrels a day, will be met by higher production from non-OPEC countries. Total daily demand for 2014 has been cut by 130,000 barrels to 92.7 million barrels.

Global supplies will total 92.6 million barrels a day in July according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) July Oil Market Report. Of that total, 30.03 million barrels a day come from OPEC suppliers, roughly equal to the June supply from the cartel.

Iraqi production losses have been offset by increased production in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Nigeria and Angola. Libyan production at its largest oil field is ramping toward its capacity of around 340,000 barrels a day, and the reopening of two of the country’s large oil exporting ports could boost total Libyan production to nearly a million barrels a day.

The recent fighting in Iraq boosted Brent crude prices to a high of more than $115 a barrel in mid-June, but they have since pulled back to around $107 a barrel as supply risk from Iraq has fallen and Libyan volumes appear set to recover. The Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq has essentially assumed control of the fields around Kirkuk and is expected to boost shipments of crude by pipeline to Turkey for export.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures have dropped to around $101 a barrel since mid-June, easing the price that U.S. drivers are paying at the pump. The average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline now is $3.631, about three cents a gallon less than a week ago.

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