IEA Warns Falling Crude Prices Call for a Production Cut

Energy

Published: November 14, 2014 7:15 am

Last Updated: April 27, 2020 11:28 pm

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its November Oil Market Report Friday morning, and the big takeaway is that unless producers cut production, prices will continue falling through the first two quarters of next year. The IEA left its 2014 demand growth forecast at 700,000 barrels, or a total of 92.4 million barrels a day. In August the IEA had pegged demand growth at 1 million barrels a day.

The IEA said global supply rose 35,000 barrels a day in October and is currently 94.2 million barrels a day. Compared with October of 2013, supply is up 2.7 million barrels a day. But 1.8 million barrels of the increase comes from non-OPEC sources and the rest is OPEC growth. The IEA now expects non-OPEC production to drop to 1.3 million barrels a day in 2015.

In its updated Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast U.S. crude oil production to grow from an estimated 9.0 million barrels a day in December 2014 to 9.4 million barrels a day in 2015. The EIA estimated October production at 8.9 million barrels a day.

OPEC production fell by 150,000 barrels a day in October, according to the IEA, to 30.60 million barrels a day. The cartel’s agreed quota remains at 30 million barrels a day. A meeting of OPEC oil ministers later this month will be carefully watched for signs that Saudi Arabia plans to cut production. Some cartel members — notably Venezuela and Ecuador — want to cut production to drive prices higher, but the Saudis have so far resisted cuts, and it would be economic suicide for other cartel members to chop production unless the Saudis do.

IEA reported that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for December delivery traded at $75.40 a barrel, just $3.00 a barrel less than the $78.50 per barrel price for Brent. Last month, WTI sold for $83.80 a barrel and Brent was priced at around $87.75. The strengthening dollar continues to contribute to the price drop, but mainly the slide is telling us that the world is oversupplied with oil.

The IEA also noted that global refinery demand hit a seasonal low in October on planned maintenance and seasonally weak demand for refined products. The agency forecast fourth-quarter 2014 refinery throughput at 77.5 million barrels a day, unchanged from last month’s report.

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