January Crude Oil Production Rises in Bakken, Eagle Ford

Crude oil production rose 37% year-over-year in the Eagle Ford shale region in January to 1.6 million barrels per day, while rig counts have dropped by 33 since the beginning of 2015. Production in the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana rose 28% year-over-year to an average of 1.2 million barrels a day. The data come from Bentek Energy, a division of Platts.

Combined, the two regions are produced 33% more crude than they did in January 2014. Production rose 1%, or 28,000 barrels per day, in January 2015.

Falling rig counts have yet to make an impact on production. Bentek’s manager of energy analysis said:

Many producers have the cushion of hedging programs in place, which is helping them minimize the impact of the current oil price environment and continue production. Other producers are likely focusing their efforts on their more prolific, higher production rate acreage.

According to Platts, prices have strengthened as well. The company’s Eagle Ford marker price has risen 6.8% since January 1, and the average price per barrel so far this year is $89.81. From mid-February of 2014 to mid-February of 2015, the Eagle Ford marker price has ranged between $46.22 and 110.71 per barrel.

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Since its inception in April 2014, the Bakken crude marker price has averaged $76 a barrel and has ranged between $38.43 and $96.59 a barrel. The marker price of Bakken crude has stabilized around $57.45 recently.

The Platts marker prices represent the value of a 47-degree API (Eagle Ford) or 42-degree or less API (Bakken) barrel of crude oil based on its product yields.

These marker prices are not typically the price a producer receives for a barrel. The “posted” price is nearer to what a producer receives for a barrel. For example, Plains Marketing was paying $37.19 a barrel for Williston Basin Sweet on Tuesday and $50 a barrel for Eagle Ford Light.

Production in the major U.S. shale plays — Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian Basin — will only begin to decline if prices fall below about $30 a barrel and stay there for weeks, if not months. Other U.S. fields are likely to see declines sooner, and total U.S. production could decline somewhat, but not until mid-2015 or later. The recent hike in prices probably will not last.

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