Energy

Crude Oil Inventory Drop Does Not Support Higher Crude Price

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly petroleum status report Wednesday morning. U.S. commercial crude inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels last week, maintaining a total U.S. commercial crude inventory of 484.8 million barrels. The inventory remains at its highest level for this time of year in at least 80 years.

Tuesday evening, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude inventories fell by 2 million barrels, gasoline inventories dropped by 1.6 million barrels and distillate stockpiles declined by 2.5 million barrels in the week ending May 8. For the same period, analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had estimated an increase of 100,000 barrels in crude inventories, a rise of 500,000 barrels in gasoline stockpiles and a rise of 500,000 barrels in distillate supplies.

Total gasoline inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels last week, according to the EIA, but remain well above the upper limit of the five-year average range. Total motor gasoline supplied (the agency’s measure of consumption) averaged over 9 million barrels a day for the past four weeks, up by 3% compared with the same period a year ago.

On Monday, analysts at Goldman Sachs cut the bank’s forecast for average oil prices this year, saying that it now expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average $47.15 a barrel for the year, down from a previous forecast of $73.75 a barrel, and Brent is expected to average $50.40 a barrel, down from a prior estimate of $83.80. Calling the price rally that began in March “premature,” Goldman said:

[W]e believe that should WTI remain near $60/bbl, US producers would eventually ramp up activity, hedge and complete wells, given improved returns with costs down by at least 20%.

In its monthly Oil Market Report released this morning, the International Energy Agency said much the same thing: [It is] “premature to suggest that OPEC has won the battle for market share” that the cartel started in November 2014.

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Both Goldman and the IEA note that the crude surplus is shifting to a refined product surplus that will keep crude prices low because rising product stockpiles will hold down refining margins. Goldman also noted that equity markets have easily soaked up $12 billion in new equity issuances since February, and that the low-cost of capital joins the conspiracy to keep crude prices low.

Before the EIA report, WTI crude for June delivery traded up about 1% at around $61.40 a barrel. The WTI price bounced higher to around $61.75 (up about 1.6% for the day) immediately after the report was released. The 52-week range on WTI futures is $45.93 to $98.22. Within five minutes following the EIA report, crude had dropped to around $61.10.

Distillate inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels last week and have moved into the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Distillate product supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 05% when compared with the same period last year. Distillate production averaged 4.9 million barrels a day last week, down about 100,000 barrels a day compared with the prior week’s production.

For the past week, crude imports averaged 6.9 million barrels a day, up by 340,000 barrels a day compared with the previous week. Refineries were running at 91.2% of capacity, with daily input of 16 million barrels, about 379,000 barrels a day below the previous week’s average.

Refiners worked through their stockpiles at a slower pace last week, and that should help keep their margins up as crude prices increase. The refiners are also interested in keeping their inventories of products slimmer as the summer driving season begins. Again, that helps prop up margins and profits.

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According to AAA, the current national average pump price per gallon of regular gasoline is $2.668, up from $2.638 a week ago and from $2.388 a month ago. Last year at this time, a gallon of regular cost $3.644 on average in the United States.

Here is a look at how share prices for two blue-chip stocks and two exchange traded funds reacted to this latest report.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) traded up about 0.2%, at $87.20 in a 52-week range of $82.68 to $104.76. Year to date, Exxon stock traded down about 5.8% and is down about 10% since early November as of Tuesday’s close.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) traded up about 0.1%, at $107.72 in a 52-week range of $98.88 to $135.10. As of Tuesday’s close, Chevron shares have dropped about 3.9% year-to-date and have traded down about 10% since early November.

The United States Oil ETF (NYSEMKT: USO) traded up about 0.6%, at $20.95 in a 52-week range of $15.61 to $39.44.

The Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSEMKT: OIH) traded up about 0.1%, at $38.49 in a 52-week range of $31.51 to $58.01.

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