UPDATE: Reuters has reportedly said that the White House has come down against legislation repealing the U.S. ban on oil exports. The report said that the U.S. Commerce Department should make the policy decision. Our take: the President has punted and is hoping for the receiving team to fumble.

The majority leader of the U.S. House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is expected to announce in a speech Tuesday in Houston that the full House will vote on legislation lifting the 40-year old ban on exports of U.S. oil. The House subcommittee on energy and power advanced the bill on a voice vote last week, and the Energy and Commerce committee is scheduled to markup the bill beginning Wednesday.

In early September, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its report on the impact of lifting the current ban on exporting U.S. crude. Proponents of lifting the ban point to report as support for their position. And indeed none of the four scenarios the EIA considered moved the price of oil a great deal:

While removing restrictions on U.S. crude oil exports either leaves global prices unchanged or lowers them modestly, global price drivers unrelated to U.S. crude oil export policy will affect growth in U.S. crude oil production and exports of crude oil and products whether or not current export restrictions are removed.

The Republican-controlled House will surely pass the legislation (H.R. 702) and send it along to the Senate, where its chances of passage are less certain. A Senate committee voted in favor of similar legislation earlier this year, but no Democrats voted in favor of it. At least a few Democrats will have to side with all the Senate Republicans to achieve filibuster-proof majority of 60 votes. And that could be easier said than done.

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As we might expect, oil exploration and production companies support unrestricted sales of crude to foreign buyers, and refiners oppose the sales. The Wall Street Journal reports that more than a dozen companies, including Continental Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLR), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), have pressed House members and Senators to repeal the ban.

The main arguments favoring removing the ban are that it will eliminate market distortions, smooth out U.S. production and boost the domestic economy. Refiners and most consumer groups counter with the argument that allowing exports will raise pump prices for gasoline.

What to expect? The EIA study provides cover for Democrats who may want to vote in favor of lifting the ban but have been wary based on arguments about how that would raise prices. Republicans appear to be solidly behind lifting the ban.

So far President Obama has not indicated where he stands on the legislation, although the administration has taken some steps to allow the export of lightly refined oil and an exchange of crude oil grades with Mexico.

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