This week was the crest of 2009 third quarter earnings season.  We still have a flood of reports next week and picking a mere top ten earnings to watch was very unfair to many key stocks.  But the ten earnings we have flagged as the top ten for next week are Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CME), ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG).  We have included Thomson Reuters consensus data for earnings and revenue estimates and added color on each where applicable.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) may already have been previewed by AT&T this week.  The telecom giant and DJIA component is up for earnings on Monday morning and estimates are $0.59 EPS on $27.17 billion in revenues.  Next quarter’s estimates are $0.60 EPS and $27.1 billion revenues.  This was almost one of our stocks that the rally had left behind, and shares are up less than 20% from the 52-week lows.  We’ll be looking for its integrated data, but AT&T’s lack of directional response yesterday and today may have taken away some of Verizon’s thunder.

Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) is on deck for earnings Tuesday and will be one part of the jobs outlook as it has been a beneficiary from students enrolling due to getting laid off or in fear that they would get laid off.  Estimates are $1.04 EPS and $1.03 billion in revenues.  Next quarter estimates are $1.45 EPS and $1.18 billion in revenues.  The WSJ noted settlement talks at the start of October and noted a $200 million max liability.  This one comes ahead of Corinthian (COCO) later in the week.

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) will be a critical part for how to measure the energy patch.  Higher and higher oil prices are not exactly good for all the refinery stocks as it turns out that they cannot magically pass the operating costs on as well as the integrated oil companies.  Estimates are -$0.33 EPS and $18.84 billion.  Estimates for next quarter are -$0.20 EPS and $20.8 billion in revenues.  The recent drop in refining capacity is a concern for the top-line, but refineries cut production when they can at less profitable facilities.

Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V) is up on Tuesday will be one of the last of the key financial stocks that stayed healthy.  As this is a mere gateway payment processing part in the financial world, it has been largely immune to the same woes as the banking sector.  Estimates are $0.72 EPS and $1.78 billion in revenues. Next quarter estimates are $0.88 EPS and $1.86 billion in revenues.  Be advised that this stock trades at more than 20-times projected earnings and is very close to a 52-week high.

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) is also reporting Wednesday.  This will be a key barometer for casinos like Las Vegas Sands, MGM, and more.  It is also expected to post a profit, and there is going to be a likely far higher “whisper number” than what many would see as official estimates. A wild card is the recent IPO, and that is something to consider for forward estimates.  Shares are also up about 300% from the 52-week lows.  Estimates are $0.15 EPS and $744.89 million.  Next quarter estimates are $0.19 EPS and $749.9 million.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is on deck for Wednesday and has been recovering much of its lost ground.  The integrated oil player is expected to post $0.94 EPS and over $35 billion in revenues.  Oil companies rarely give guidance, and there is very little to say as many just chase oil prices higher and lower.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is also on deck Wednesday and may be the first real presentation by its new CEO.  Count this as his coming-out party.  Whatever guidance he offers will not be his fault because all of the woes of the solar sector came before he arrived. Estimates are $1.73 EPS on $527.6 million.  You already saw the poor reaction to SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) earnings, and that may have tempered some of the high hopes that were in First Solar.  Be advised that this company is expected to see consolidation in earnings ahead as the estimates for 2009 to 2010 show a guess of higher revenues but contracting earnings.  First Solar is one of the leaders of the sector, so that could set the tone for a myriad of other companies.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CME) is up for earnings on Thursday, just a day before NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) reports.  The Chicago boys are expected to post $3.31 EPS and $653.3 million in revenues. Be advised that shares have more than doubled from the 52-week lows and this trades at more than 24-times expected 2009 earnings estimates.

ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is on deck for earnings Thursday.  Long gone are the $100 billion in revenue days.  Estimates for the oil giant and DJIA component are $1.06 EPS and over $79 billion in revenues.  Oil companies rarely give formal guidance and our take is that the post-earnings reaction after a few days will revert back to tracking the price of oil.  There is one pending notion… what on earth can or will Exxon do with that mountain of cash?  Exxon is the largest company in America measured by our Real-Time 500 Index of stocks by market cap.

Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) is the last DJIA component to report next week (Thursday morning), and should mark the 23rd or 24th of the 30 components so far this quarter.  Estimates for the consumer products giant are $0.99 EPS and $19.83 billion, and next quarter estimates are $1.40 EPS and $20.6 billion.  The company had discussed issues in pricing, but the lower cost of materials in the last quarter may have helped.  Be advised that the P&G pharma unit sale for $3.1 billion may create some discrepancies between P&G’s formal guidance and what the analysts still have as consensus.  This is now down to #10 on our Real-Time 500 Index of the largest market cap stocks.

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JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 23, 2009

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