DOE Inventory Data Highlights Ongoing Refinery Woes (OIH, USO, UCO, VLO)

The Department of Energy has released some mixed data on weekly oil inventory data, and the take for refining is looking just as bad still or actually worse in February compared to the Q4-earnings period we have seen reports on over the last week.  We are watching the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH), the United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF, and the Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil ProShares (NYSE: UCO) as the key oil and oil service ETFs on the news.  We are also watching Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) drop in reaction.

Crude oil inventories rose by 2.31 million barrels to 328.99 million barrels, versus an expected ‘no change’ by Dow Jones.  The gasoline inventories showed a drop of 1.3 million barrels to 228.12 million barrels, versus a Dow Jones expectation of a 1 million barrel gain.  After what we had seen, we were told by traders to look for small gains in both.  Distillates fell by 948,000 barrels to 156.54 million barrels.

The biggest issue here is refineries and the capacity.  The rate was down to 77.7% versus 78.45% last week and was somehow expected to come in at 78.5% according to Dow Jones estimates.  This is showing that despite some hopes that the dismal Q4 refining earnings, the bottom in refining capacity might not have been reached.

The Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH) is up 0.5% at $124.06, up from the $1.00 drop seen a few minutes after the data was released. The United States Oil (NYSE: USO) ETF is also off of lows after the news and up 1.1% at $37.94 and the Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil ProShares (NYSE: UCO) is down 0.3% at $34.17.  Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is down 2.3% at $18.81.  At 10:55 AM EST oil via NYMEX Crude is up $0.18 at $77.41 per barrel, off its highs from earlier this morning.

JON C. OGG