There has been a great deal of concern that the oil slick created by 5,000 barrels a day from the wrecked Deepwater Horizon would hit beaches in Louisiana. Alabama, and perhaps Florida. In each area, the oil could ruin the fishing industry along with the shipping and tourism business.

The BP plc (NYSE: BP) plan to capture crude rising to the surface with a four-story, 100-ton dome appears to have been a failure. Ice formed by gas inside the dome has prevented oil from being moved to the surface where tankers could load it and take it away.

Weather patterns are now moving the sea of crude in an unanticipated direction–toward Texas.

NOAA officials said that BP continues to work on solving the problem of ice-like methane hydrate crystals that accumulated inside of the dome intended to capture the leaking oil. A process known as a “junk shot”, in which debris is injected into the blow out preventer, is being examined. The drilling of the relief wells continues.

The National Weather Service advised that “the latest trajectory models indicate that the predicted persistent winds from the SE next week will continue to move oil westward.”

The new forecasts and the failure of the “dome” initiative mean that the only other alternative is for BP to drop another well down 5,000 feet and penetrate the ocean floor next to the Deepwater Horizon leaks. This should relieve the pressure on the flow of oil from that location, but the drilling will take two to three months.

The projections from  NOAA means that the land around the entire crescent of the Gulf is at risk. This includes important refineries in Galveston and the Alabama ports. It may also prevent shipping from moving southeast toward the coast of Florida and into the Atlantic.

BP says the clean up is costing $10 million a day. It is not certain what expenses the British company will accrue beyond that. The Oil liability Trust Fund currently caps costs outside direct clean-up at $75 million. Members of Congress have suggested that the cap should be raised to $10 billion. And, BP will face suits from state attorneys general.

Experts speculate that the total cost of the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe will be billions of dollars, but the numbers are only guesses. What is not a guess is that US GDP will be affected by a drop of fishing and tourism and a probable move up in the price of oil.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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