The Limits Of Science, Oil Leak At 95,000 Barrels A Day?

There is a wild divergence in the estimates of oil leaking from the Deepwater Horizon rig disaster. The NOAA and BP plc (NYSE: BP) estimates continue to be at 5,000 barrels a day. BP says that its mechanisms have lowered the amount of oil that is leaking by 2,000 as it captures the crude as it comes out of the ocean floor. NOAA maps of the spill are based on a leak of about 5,000 barrels, and the maps are reviewed daily by flights over the affected area.Scientists are now able to look at live video of the leak, and their figures for the volume of the leak are rising, some to unimaginable and perhaps unsupportable levels. Some experts have put the amount of escaping oil at five time to six times official figures.  The most astounding estimate is 95,000 barrels a day from a Steve Wereley, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University.

The public might be alarmed by the higher estimates and wonder where all that extra crude is going. There have been sightings of huge oil plumes beneath the surface and perhaps a huge frozen blob that cannot be seen from the air. These deposits are, according to some scientists, robbing oxygen from beneath the surface, which will kill marine life that lives deep in the waters of the Gulf. There is no solid evidence that this is true; it is just guessing.

Oil began to move ashore in Louisiana yesterday. Some of the crude has worked its way into the Loop, a current that runs toward Florida. BP says the crude will have degraded by the time it reaches Key West. That may be true, but BP has not given any justification for its statements. That leaves another loose end as the US government and crews working to contain the spill labor to figure out what methods will work best.

The disputes over the amount of oil that is leaking, where it is going, and what form it will be in when it gets there show the limitations of science and engineering, disciplines that are advanced to the point where it is unbelievable that any figures on the leaks should be accurate. But, as it turns out, no one will know how much oil leaked and how much damage it will do until it is actually done and the harm can be calculated with fairly simple math.

Douglas A. McIntyre