BP’s Modest Solution

BP plc (NYSE: BP) says it has made modest progress in slowing the leak of crude into the Gulf of Mexico from its Deepwater Horizon rig wreck. It says that a siphon put into the well, 5,000 feet below the ocean’s surface, has begun to capture some small amount of the oil. But, the siphon works intermittently.

The company described its current progress by saying “The test was halted temporarily when the tube was dislodged.  While this is disappointing, it is not unexpected given the challenging operating environment.”  The statement is probably optimistic. BP has put a positive spin on progress on the spill before.BP’s estimates of the amount of crude leaking each day is 5,000 barrels. Several scientists have disputed that. Some say the leak is five or six times larger than what BP says. The discovery of huge plumes of oil beneath the ocean’s surface would tend to confirm that the oil company’s forecasts on the most important aspect of the catastrophe are off considerably.

BP has presented several “promising” solutions to the leaks. The first was a large dome which failed due to freezing gas which blocked pump lines. The second was a “top hat” which could not stay above the leak at all. The most recent is the siphon, which has already failed.

What BP has avoided speaking about often is that the most likely solution, which again may turn out to be no solution at all, will be to drill a well next to the leak to relieve the pressure. The process would take three months. The well would have to be positioned perfectly to have any chance to work. And, “perfect” is not a word that applies well to complex mechanical efforts a mile beneath the water’s surface.

BP continues to hold out hope, when there really is none.

Douglas A. McIntyre