Crude Demand Growth to Fall in 2013 — OPEC

In its monthly Oil Market Report released today, OPEC projects that demand for crude would rise by an average of 900,000 barrels/day in 2012 and that growth would decline to 800,000 barrels/day in 2013. Expected demand for crude in 2013 totals 89.5 million barrels/day, of which demand on OPEC totals 29.6 million barrels/day. The cartel estimates 2012 demand of 88.68 million barrels/day, up 1% from 2011.

The report also notes that non-OPEC supply in 2012 is expected to average 53.06 million barrels/day, a rise of 670,000 barrels/day over 2011. In 2013, the cartel forecasts non-OPEC supply of 53.98 million barrels/day, up 0.9% from the 2012 levels. OPEC supply in June, including Iraq, totaled 31.36 million barrels/day, according to secondary sources. That’s down more than 100,000 barrels/day from the May report.

OPEC’s official production quota remains at 30 million barrels/day, but the cartel is, as usual, producing more than that quota in an effort to maintain members’ revenue streams. The last month for which OPEC has complete data from its members on daily product is April, when total OPEC production was 32.96 million barrels/day. That total includes 3.76 million barrels/day from Iran, all of which may or may not be getting into the market as a result of US and EU sanctions.

The July report from OPEC is available here.

Paul Ausick