IEA Monthly Report Cuts Crude Demand Estimate

Demand growth in 2012 has been cut back from 730,000 barrels a day to 670,000 barrels a day. If that holds, total demand in 2012 will be about 89.6 million barrels a day.

The cut to demand was attributed to lower U.S. demand following Hurricane Sandy and “persistent weakness in Europe.” Prices have also declined since the U.S. general election, the agency said, on worries about the U.S. fiscal cliff.

OPEC supplied 31.15 million barrels of crude a day in October, a nine-month low. Non-OPEC supply totaled 53.4 million barrels a day up by 840,000 barrels a day in September. The IEA expects non-OPEC supply to rise by 460,000 barrels a day in 2012 over 2011, and by 860,000 barrels a day in 2013. The stronger supply forecast and weaker demand has cut the amount of oil the IEA estimates will be needed from OPEC members. That total was lowered by 500,000 barrels a day for the fourth quarter of 2012, to 30 million barrels a day.

IEA’s estimate of crude inventory increases in the 30 developed nations of the OECD comes to 15.2 million barrels, to a total OECD inventory level of 2.746 billion barrels.

WTI crude is trading around $85 a barrel and Brent crude is trading at about $107.50. Both are lower, with WTI down about 0.6% and Brent down about 1.4%.

Paul Ausick