24/7 Wall St. wanted to give a quick valuation analysis on the run here. We evaluated market caps, earnings or sales multiples, share performance and other metrics on each one.
First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is the de facto leader of solar power in the United States. A recent upgrade from Goldman Sachs to Buy from Neutral really caught the value-conscious investors off guard because what had been a runaway rally in 2013 is now up around $56, after what had previously been $52 on the stock. The good news is that now with its higher guidance, First Solar shares trade at only about 13 times expected 2013 earnings. The bad news is that 2013 is expected to be the sales peak, as revenue is predicted to drop next year. Analysts also still have a price target that is almost $40, because the stock ran above and beyond the pre-news price targets. First Solar as of a $56 price has seen its stock rally more than 81% so far in 2013. One reason for chasing First Solar is that, as a leader, its market cap is still just under $5 billion. Another thing that may keep the sensible crowd from winning is that First Solar’s stock price was north of $250 back in the solar bubble of 2008.
Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is Elon Musk’s bear-eater of an electric car company. With a new sale-lease program, an expansion of charging stations and Tesla repaying the Department of Energy almost a decade early on its loan, this stock is chugging along. Even after Friday’s drop to $102.50, this stock is up a crazy 200% so far in 2013. Despite this going way above what we consider a fair value price of $74.20, according to Wall Street, the reality is that momentum has trumped common valuation metrics. Tesla’s market cap is now almost $12 billion and it trades at about six times sales and more than a 100 times projected 2014 earnings. Investors are playing what they hope is a 2015 value story when they are chasing this growth.
Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) had been the story before solar and electric cars took over. The stock may be about $20 off of its fresh highs, but things were good enough that it is was added to the NASDAQ 100 Index. Even after pulling back, Netflix stock is up about 145% so far in 2013. Valuations are still sky high here, at about 162 times expected 2013 earnings. The market value is close to $13 billion. Netflix has a focus on international growth as the next driver, and many investors still recall that Netflix saw its stock approach $300 in the prior peak of 2011. Netflix stock analysts have caught up more than before with a $203 consensus price target, although that is still about 10% less than the current share price.
The gains in these stocks have been more than impressive. In some cases they have gone above and beyond what logic or common sense might have dictated. It is easy to say that Tesla is no-man’s land, but momentum investors in First Solar and Netflix can easily say that the fundamental valuations do not matter because these are nowhere close to their prior peaks.
It is a bull market. Sometimes common sense and logic just cannot even come close to keeping up with momentum and euphoria.
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