DOE Shows Refineries Running at Almost Full Capacity

Total gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week and are now below the lower limit of the five-year average range. Total motor gasoline supplied (the EIA’s measure of consumption) averaged 8.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up about 3.8% from the same period a year ago.

Distillate inventories rose by 600,000 barrels last week, but they remain at the lower limit of the average range. Distillate product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 0.6% when compared with the same period last year. Distillate production averaged 4.8 million barrels a day last week, up 100,000 barrels compared with the prior week.

Tuesday evening, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that crude inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels in the week ending March 28, together with a rise of 18,000 barrels in gasoline supplies and a decline of 17,000 barrels in distillate supplies. For the same period, Platts estimated a rise of 1.8 million barrels in crude inventories, a decline of 2 million barrels in gasoline inventories and a drop of 900,000 barrels in distillate inventories.

Refinery runs are increasing, having gained 300,000 barrels a day over the past two weeks as the refiners complete their seasonal turnarounds and maintenance.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices closed at $99.19 on Tuesday and were trading down about 0.3% before the EIA report at around $99.25 a barrel. The WTI price slipped further to around $99.09 shortly after the report was released.

For the past week, crude imports averaged more than 6.8 million barrels a day, down by 900,000 barrels a day from the previous week. Refineries were running at 87.7% of capacity, with daily input of 15.3 million barrels a day, up about 160,000 barrels over the previous week’s average.

According to AAA, the current average pump price per gallon of regular gasoline is $3.561, up from $3.535 a week ago and $3.459 a month ago. Last year a gallon of regular cost $3.637 on average in the United States. As refineries come back on line, price increases ought to moderate and level off. Earlier this week AAA forecast that the national average gasoline price could reach a high of $3.75 a gallon this year.

The United States Oil ETF (NYSEMKT: USO) was down about 0.3% Wednesday morning, at $35.73 in a 52-week range of $30.79 to $39.54.

The United States Gasoline ETF (NYSEMKT: UGA) was down about 0.9% to $57.38, in a 52-week range of $53.35 to $63.34.

The United States Brent Oil ETF (NYSEMKT: BNO) was down about 0.8%, at $41.73 in a 52-week range of $36.88 to $45.05.