Conoco Sets Goal for Double-Digit Shareholder Returns

Energy

Published: April 10, 2014 2:05 pm

Last Updated: April 27, 2020 7:25 pm

At its analyst meeting in New York City Thursday, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) reaffirmed its goal of delivering double-digit annual returns to investors by growing production by 3% to 5% a year, growing margins by the same amount and offering a “compelling dividend.” In its presentation the company said it has produced total shareholder returns of 22.6% in the two years since April 2012, when it spun off its refining operations to Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX).

In what may be the most important message Conoco delivered, the company said it has increased its total resource base in its Eagle Ford acreage from 1.8 billion barrels to 2.5 billion barrels. The number represents original oil in place, not recoverable barrels or proved reserves. Conoco also said that it expects to increase production in the Eagle Ford play to 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day by 2017.

Conoco plans to increase its annual capital spending over the “next several years” to $16 billion, with a boost of 60% in the amount it commits to development so that the company can achieve its reserve replacement goal of more than 100% a year. Some 95% of Conoco’s spending will be directed at areas that deliver a minimum margin of $30 per barrel of oil equivalent. That includes everything the company produces except North American natural gas.

Of the annual $16 billion in capex, some $5.5 billion will be spent on North American unconventional (shale) plays, including the Eagle Ford, Bakken, Permian Basin and Niobrara plays. Finding and development costs in the Eagle Ford and Bakken plays is $20 to $25 per barrel of oil equivalent. That is not the full production cost, however, which could conceivably add another $30 to $50 a barrel to total costs.

A believer in Conoco is Warren Buffet, who still owns more than 11 million shares of the company’s stock, although that is less than half the stake he had in the middle of last year.

Conoco may not have picked the best day to hold its meeting. The oil and gas sector traded down about 1% in the early afternoon, and the exploration and production group was down about 1.4%. Conoco traded down 1.9% at $70.17, in a 52-week range of $56.38 to $74.59. At that price the company’s dividend yield is about 3.9%.

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