IEA Chops Oil Demand Growth Estimate

Energy

Published: August 12, 2014 12:34 pm

Last Updated: April 27, 2020 11:27 pm

The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its July release projected 2014 oil demand growth of 1.2 million barrels a day. It also projected at the time that demand would rise to 1.4 million barrels a day in 2015. In its Oil Market Report released Tuesday, however, the agency has trimmed its demand growth forecast for 2014 to 1 million barrels a day and the growth forecast for 2015 to 1.3 million barrels a day.

The IEA based its revisions on lower-than-expected deliveries in the second quarter and a weaker outlook for the global economy coming from the International Monetary Fund. An improving economy in 2015 is expected to be the driving force for the higher crude oil demand next year.

Global supply rose 230,000 barrels a day to 93 million barrels in July, up 840,000 barrels a day above the June 2013 total. OPEC supplies fell by 360,000 barrels a day and were more than offset by growth of 1.2 million barrels a day from non-OPEC sources, most likely the U.S.

Crude oil September futures dropped about 0.9% on Tuesday and were nearing $97 a barrel before recovering slightly to around $97.23 shortly before noon. Two months ago, crude futures were trading at around $101 a barrel.

IEA estimated global refinery throughput at 76.5 million barrels a day in July, 1.3 million barrels a day above July 2013 totals, and 200,000 barrels a day higher than the June throughput. IEA expects throughput in the third quarter to rise to 77.8 million barrels a day.

Global inventories of crude oil rose to 2.67 billion barrels in July, the highest since September of last year. The second quarter’s inventory build of 88 million barrels is the largest quarterly build since the third quarter of 2006.

The more closely watched weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due out Wednesday morning. A preliminary estimate from Reuters indicates that U.S. commercial inventories declined by 2.2 million barrels in the week ending August 8.

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