Energy

Crude Tumbles Again as IEA Lowers Oil Demand Forecast

124668669
Thinkstock
The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its October Oil Market Report Tuesday morning, and it is even gloomier for oil producers than last week’s report from OPEC. The IEA has cut its 2014 demand growth forecast from 900,000 barrels a day to 700,000 barrels, or a total of 92.4 million barrels a day. In August the IEA had pegged demand growth at a million barrels a day.

The IEA said global supply rose 910,000 barrels a day in September and is currently 2.8 million barrels a day. The agency said non-OPEC supply growth is up 2.1 million barrels a day in 2014 and estimates that 2015 non-OPEC supply growth will reach 1.3 million barrels a day.

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts global crude oil demand growth of 1.0 million barrels a day in 2014 and 1.2 million barrels a day in 2015. Global production is expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2014 and 900,000 barrels a day in 2015.

In last Friday’s October Oil Market Report, OPEC affirmed its estimate of demand growth for 2014 at 1.05 million barrels a day. The cartel also said that non-OPEC supply will grow at a rate of 1.68 million barrels a day in 2014 and 1.24 million barrels a day in 2015. More troublesome is that demand for OPEC crude in 2014 is currently forecast at 29.5 million barrels a day and the cartel was producing nearly 1 million barrels a day more than that. Demand for OPEC crude is forecast to fall to 29.2 million barrels a day next year.

ALSO READ: What OPEC Is Really Telling the IMF

All the numbers are slightly different, but they all tell the same story: crude oil demand is falling and taking prices lower as it goes. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for December delivery is down about 1.5% early Tuesday morning at around $83.80. Brent crude is down about 1.9% at $87.74. A stronger dollar is contributing the price drop, but mainly the slide is telling us that the world is oversupplied with oil.

Until prices fall to a level where producers are better off leaving oil in the ground than pumping it out, the price of crude will continue its downward slide. That day is probably at least one if not two years away. We noted reports Monday that Saudi Arabia is happy to sell its crude at $80 a barrel or less and to do that for an extended period.

In the United States, producers in the shale plays have been able to drive costs down to as low as $50 a barrel in some places, although costs of $70 are about average. Allowing U.S. producers to export oil won’t really contribute to higher prices except in the very short term because it costs so much less for Saudi Arabia, Iraq or Iran to produce a barrel of crude and those countries are unlikely to give up market share, as long as their break-even price is half that of U.S. producers.

ALSO READ: Have Solar Stocks Sold Off Too Much?

Take This Retirement Quiz To Get Matched With An Advisor Now (Sponsored)

Are you ready for retirement? Planning for retirement can be overwhelming, that’s why it could be a good idea to speak to a fiduciary financial advisor about your goals today.

Start by taking this retirement quiz right here from SmartAsset that will match you with up to 3 financial advisors that serve your area and beyond in 5 minutes. Smart Asset is now matching over 50,000 people a month.

Click here now to get started.

Thank you for reading! Have some feedback for us?
Contact the 24/7 Wall St. editorial team.