What to Look For in ConocoPhillips Third-Quarter Results

In those two sets of numbers we see all we need to know about the oil business. Production (and revenues) is expected to be lower, and so are profits. Second-quarter revenues totaled $14.7 billion, which was up from $14.14 billion in the second-quarter of 2013. No such luck in the third quarter.

Analysts have chopped nearly 30 cents from the consensus EPS estimate in the past three months. Over the same period, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have fallen from near $100 a barrel to around $82.50. In the third quarter, a barrel of crude dropped by about $12 a barrel, so Conoco’s estimated EPS drop of about 20% is worse than the 11% drop in a barrel of crude.

Conoco estimated that its third-quarter production is expected to land in a range of 1.435 million to 1.485 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and fourth-quarter production is currently forecast at 1.59 million to 1.64 million barrels a day. Full-year production guidance calls for 1.525 million to 1.55 million barrels a day. Total second-quarter production reached 1.557 million barrels per day.

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Conoco’s average sales price for a barrel of crude in the second quarter was $103.39. The price almost certainly will be lower in the third quarter, because prices of Brent have come down to below $90 a barrel, and Conoco’s oil sands bitumen price has also likely declined.

If Conoco meets estimates, it will only be because the bar has been set so low. Shares traded up about 1% in the early afternoon, at $70.86 in a 52-week range of $62.74 to $87.09.