Energy

J.P. Morgan Stays Very Defensive on Top MLPs to Buy in 2015

Plain and simple, the energy sector has been a nightmare for investors over the past seven months. Obviously, demand and supply is an issue, but some analysts estimate that as much as 30% of the overall decline is tied to momentum speculators shorting oil futures. A new report from J.P. Morgan’s Energy/MLP team points out that despite declining commodity prices that led to a fourth quarter meltdown, master limited partnerships clawed out a 5% total return in 2014, much better than the S&P energy -8% total return.

While a huge contrarian play for investors, energy demand will not slow forever, and speculators will have to cover shorts at some point. A mid-week huge jump in oil pricing may suggest they are close. With yields on U.S. Treasury debt at all-time lows, income investors looking among the rubble of the top MLPs may have the chance of a lifetime. The J.P. Morgan plan is to stick with defensive natural gas names and the top blue chips in the arena. Here are six top MLPs to buy now for investors that can stand some volatility in a growth and income portfolio. All are rated Outperform at J.P. Morgan. Remember, MLP distributions may include return of principal.

Blue Chip MLPs

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: EPD) certainly fits the blue chip mold, and it is a top MLP to buy at J.P. Morgan. The company is one of the largest publicly traded partnerships and a leading North American provider of midstream energy services to producers and consumers of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals. The company recently announced the 42nd consecutive quarterly distribution increase, to $0.37 per common unit, or $1.48 per unit on an annualized basis.

Enterprise investors are paid a 4.3% distribution. The J.P. Morgan price target for the company is $42. The Thomson/First Call consensus target is just higher at $42.95. Enterprise closed on Wednesday at $32.45.

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Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE: KMI) is another core blue chip MLP pick at J.P. Morgan, and it is also one of the most recommended on Wall Street. The company announced in the fall the acquisition of all of Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, Kinder Morgan Management and El Paso Pipeline Partners in a series of transactions. The merger plan was comprised of $40 billion in parent-company equity, $4 billion in cash and $27 billion in assumed debt. It is a move some shareholders are opposed to, but one many on Wall Street saw as a brilliant move that could reshape the industry.

Kinder Morgan unit-holders are paid a solid 4.2% distribution. The J.P. Morgan price target for the iconic industry giant is $47, and the consensus target is $46.36. Kinder Morgan closed Wednesday at $41.22.

Plains All American Pipeline L.P. (NYSE: PAA) remains a top name to buy at most of the Wall Street firms we cover, and it is the third core blue chip recommended at J.P. Morgan. The company has been developing a new NGL fractionator, which will be in La Salle County, Texas. NGL will be sourced from the company’s Eagle Ford-producing region and will be processed and fractionated. This project is designed to fractionate up to 15,000 barrels of NGL per day and is expected to be operational by the second quarter of this year. The company also increased its quarterly distribution to unit-holders last week.

Investors are paid a very solid 5.1% distribution. J.P. Morgan has a $56 price target, while the consensus is even higher at $62.60. The stock closed Wednesday at $47.84 a share.

Natural Gas MLPs

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners L.P. (NYSE: BWP) was absolutely murdered this time last year after a giant distribution cut and a horrible earnings report. The stock gapped down huge and spent most of 2014 fighting its way back. The company is a midstream partnership that provides transportation, storage, gathering and processing of natural gas and liquids for its customers. Boardwalk and its subsidiaries own and operate approximately 14,625 miles of natural gas and liquids pipelines and underground storage caverns with an aggregate working gas capacity of approximately 207 billion cubic feet and liquids capacity of approximately 18 million barrels.

Boardwalk investors are paid a 2.4% distribution. The J.P. Morgan price target is an aggressive $24, while the consensus is set at $21.78. Shares closed at $15.65.

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Dominion Midstream Partners L.P. (NYSE: DM) is one of the nation’s largest producers and transporters of energy, with a portfolio of approximately 24,900 megawatts of generation, 10,900 miles of natural gas transmission, gathering and storage pipeline and 6,400 miles of electric transmission lines. Dominion operates one of the nation’s largest natural gas storage systems, with 947 billion cubic feet of storage capacity, and it serves utility and retail energy customers in 10 states.

Dominion investors are not paid a distribution, so this is a pure capital gain play. The J.P. Morgan price target is $43, and the consensus target is $38.88. Dominion closed Wednesday at $33.70.

EQT Midstream Partners L.P. (NYSE: EQM) is a growth-oriented partnership formed by EQT Corp. to own, operate, acquire and develop midstream assets in the Appalachian Basin. The partnership provides midstream services to EQT Corp. and third-party companies through its strategically located transmission, storage and gathering systems that service the Marcellus and Utica regions. The partnership also owns 700 miles and operates an additional 200 miles of FERC-regulated interstate pipelines. It also owns more than 1,600 miles of high- and low-pressure gathering lines.

EQT unit-holders are paid a 2.6% distribution. J.P. Morgan puts a very aggressive $100 price target out, and the consensus is placed even higher at $104.15. EQT closed trading on Wednesday at $77.84.

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Clearly this is a very contrarian trade, with the energy sector receiving so much negative publicity and chatter. Just remember, so was home-building after the real estate collapse in 2008. Long-term investors with an eye down the road two years and more may be very well rewarded buying these top MLPs now. It may be wise to scale in capital, buying partial position now and watching for earnings.

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