The IEA attributed the decline to lower production in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries and said that projected reductions in 2015 capital expenditures are expected to cut non-OPEC supply growth to 800,000 barrels a day, some 150,000 barrels a day less than the agency’s January forecast for supply growth of 950,000 barrels a day. The February report sees a reduction of 200,000 barrels a day in U.S. supply growth, sharply larger than the January forecast for a drop of just 80,000 barrels a day.
The global demand growth forecast remained unchanged from January’s level of 900,000 barrels a day to a total of 93.4 million barrels a day for 2015. The IEA said that an improving macroeconomic outlook will push demand growth beyond the 600,000 barrel a day growth posted in 2014.
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To meet the expected demand for 2015, the IEA projects OPEC members will need to produce 30.2 million barrels a day, slightly above the cartel’s target of 30 million barrels a day. In January, OPEC nations produced 30.31 million barrels.
In the medium term (out to 2020), the IEA sees supply growth slowing to an annual average of 860,000 barrels a day through 2020, compared with growth of 1.4 million barrels a day from 2008 through 2014. Among OPEC nations, Iraqi supply growth is projected to rise by 1.1 million barrels a day.
The medium-term projection calls for a slowdown in U.S. production over the next three years, followed by a rebound in 2018. The other major change among non-OPEC countries is a drop of 560,000 barrels a day in Russian production.
OPEC released its Monthly Oil Market Report for February on Monday and the cartel’s estimate for global demand came in at 93.32 million barrels a day, just 80,000 barrels a day below Tuesday’s IEA estimate. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases updated estimates from its Short-Term Energy Outlook later Tuesday. The EIA’s January estimate for global oil demand in 2015 was 92.4 million barrels a day.
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