With oil up almost 50% from the lows back in January, lots of energy investors are breathing a sigh of relief. Many parts of the industry are still struggling, especially the upstream segment, which suffered an aggregated loss of $2.7 billion, versus a positive $4.9 billion quarterly average for the past three years, However, there are solid areas to buy. In a new report from Cowen, the analysts there say go big cap for the last half of 2015.
The Cowen team warns that there could be what they term “commodity induced pullbacks” that investors should be aware of. Translated, a steep drop in oil or natural gas prices could spur another stock sell-off. The analysts are very positive on five big oil stocks for investors to own going forward.
Chevron
This stock is very solid story for investors looking to stay long the energy sector. Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) sports a sizable dividend and has a solid place in the sector when it comes to natural gas and liquefied natural gas. Some Wall Street analysts estimate the company will have a compound annual growth rate of more than 5% for the next five years, and the stock trades at a modest valuation discount to some of its mega-cap peers.
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The Cowen team says Chevron management is aggressively pursuing cost-saving initiatives and has already completed over 2,200 supplier engagements, with 700 more in progress. The results are very encouraging, with nearly $900 billion in contract savings already negotiated. There also has been significant insider buying at the company in recent weeks.
Chevron investors are paid a nice 3.95% dividend. The Cowen price target for the stock is $125. The Thomson/First Call consensus price target is $114.67. Shares closed Thursday at $108.45.
Exxon Mobil
This leading energy company hit the earnings ball out of the park when it reported first-quarter numbers. Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) is an energy sector behemoth that many analysts are very positive on. Wall Street as a whole acknowledges the strength of the integrated giant plays a significant part in the company’s very solid first-quarter earnings report. The company’s global downstream chemical segment plays a huge part in driving earnings for Exxon.
The Cowen team points to the fact that the company’s major projects remain on track despite commodity pricing dips. They expect efforts at the projects to ramp up strong in the second half of 2015.
Exxon investors are paid a very respectable 3.35% dividend. The Cowen target for the energy giant is $105. The consensus price objective is lower at $93.83. Shares closed trading on Thursday at $86.97.
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Occidental Petroleum
This is another top energy stock that comes in as a high-yielding domestic stock in the sector. Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) announced last year it will continue to grow dividends and expects to begin buying back more shares this year and beyond, a double plus for shareholders. Analysts feel that the company still faces the rebounding oil price correction with the strongest balance sheet in the sector, with net cash at year-end 2014 they estimate at around $1.7 billion, and a whopping $11 per share of cash available for buy backs. With chemicals and other products helping to blunt the drop in oil, Occidental is well positioned to ride out the storm.
Short sellers that had been leaning into the stock during the oil price decline have started to get out as prices have poked back through $60 a barrel, way above of the low $40s hit back in January.
This is another company that the Cowen team sees taking advantage of huge cost savings. In fact, capital expenditures are expected to fall from $1.7 billion to $1.0 billion by the end of the year.
Occidental shareholders are paid an outstanding 3.91% dividend. The Cowen price target is $94, but the consensus target is $85.43. Shares closed trading most recently at $76.29.
Royal Dutch Shell
This company has survived the plunge in oil pricing plunge as good as or better than any other major integrated stock. Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE: RDS-A) operates as an independent oil and gas company worldwide. It explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. It also converts natural gas to liquids to provide fuels and other products. Shell recently won a significant victory recently in its ongoing $3 billion fight with India’s revenue authorities, in a judgment with implications for dozens of tax disputes involving multinational companies in Asia’s third-largest economy. Any lift in the energy market next year could make this a top stock to own.
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The Cowen team pointed out that although the market for asset sales is difficult, the company completed over $2 billion in asset sales over the past year, and it is also chopping the company’s capital expenditures.
Royal Dutch Shell investors are paid a huge 5.02 % dividend. The Cowen price target is $74, and the consensus target for the European oil giant was not posted. Shares closed Thursday at $63.56.
Total
This giant European integrated is based in France. Total S.A. (NYSE: TOT) announced last year that it will move forward with its plans to develop the Kaombo oil field off of the Angolan coast. This giant oil field is estimated to contain approximately 650 million barrels of oil. Several other companies, including Exxon, also have large interests in this field that is expected to deliver huge production volume. Total stands to receive 30% of this amount, as that is its ownership stake. It also has a huge field in the Kurdistan region of Iraq that could have outstanding production.
With five big projects on track and cost cutting helping to save capital, the French giant is the top pick at Cowen for growth and value.
Total investors are paid an outstanding 4.75% dividend. The Cowen price target is posted at $66. The consensus estimate is quite a bit lower at $57.72. Total closed Thursday at $53.43 per share.
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The Cowen team is smart for staying with big cap stocks that pay outstanding dividends. In a sector that could remain volatile, that makes very good sense for investors.
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