The firm noted that this downgrade reflects the view that the standalone post-spinoff company will be worth roughly $21 per share –well below the $26 per share implied by Argus’ sum-of-the-parts valuation for the combined entities.
On June 2, NiSource announced that its board had approved the tax-free separation of Columbia Pipeline Group (CPG) from NiSource. As part of the transaction, NiSource shareholders of record as of June 19 will receive one share of the new Columbia Pipeline stock for every NI share held. Columbia Pipeline stock will begin trading as a standalone entity on the NYSE on July 2, under the symbol CPGX.
Following the separation, Columbia Pipeline and NiSource will take on different roles. Columbia Pipeline will be a pure-play natural gas pipeline, midstream and storage company. NiSource will be a more narrowly focused regulated natural gas and electric utility.
The faster-growing company will be Columbia Pipeline. At separation, Columbia will operate more than 15,000 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines. It will also have nearly 300 billion cubic feet of underground natural gas storage capacity and a growing portfolio of midstream and related facilities. Columbia has significant assets in the Utica and Marcellus shale regions, and a predictable cash flow stream that is insensitive to changes in commodity prices. The company will pay an initial annualized dividend of $0.50 per share, which it expects to grow 15% annually from 2016 to 2020.
The slower growing company, NiSource, will have roughly 3.4 million customers in seven states. NiSource is expected to grow its earnings and dividend by 4% to 6% annually, with an initial annualized payout of $0.62 per share. NiSource management has outlined the company’s plans for substantial rate base growth. It expects this growth to be driven by $30 billion in planned capital projects over the next 20-plus years, which equates to about $1.2 billion in annual spending. Of the $30 billion, $20 billion will be allocated to the natural gas utilities and $10 billion to the electric utility.
As a result Argus kept its 2015 earnings per share (EPS) estimate for NiSource at $1.80, and reflects the company’s plans to invest roughly $2.4 billion in capital projects this year. The 2015 forecast is based on pre-spinoff estimates. Argus initiated a 2016 estimate for standalone NiSource of $1.08 per share.
Shares of NiSource were down 0.3% at $45.80 on Tuesday afternoon. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $45.39 and a 52-week trading range of $36.00 to $49.16.
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