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What Kinder Morgan investors are probably more interested in is the company’s distributable cash flow (DCF). DCF is a non-GAAP measure that is roughly comparable to net income per share and is KMI’s preferred way of comparing basic cash flows to the cash dividends it expects to pay shareholders. Another way of looking at DCF is as coverage in excess of dividends. DCF for the second quarter totaled $0.50 per share, up from $0.32 in the second quarter of 2014.
As we noted earlier Tuesday morning on Kinder Morgan’s acquisition of refined products terminal assets from BP, Kinder Morgan has missed estimates in three of the past four quarters, but it’s difficult to tell whether that’s due to the company’s relatively recent conversion from a master limited partnership and the usual confusion that kind of change causes among analysts, or if there’s something wrong with the business.
At an energy conference in mid-September, Kinder Morgan tried to pump up its share price: “We believe the market has not adequately distinguished between us and other energy companies.” The company’s primary argument is that the vast majority of its expected earnings are fee-based or hedged and therefore not captive to the commodity price of oil or natural gas.
Since that conference presentation, shares have moved from $29.86 a share to trade at around $31.75 Tuesday afternoon. That’s an increase of more than 6% and includes a dip to below $26 on September 29. From the 52-week low of $25.81 set that day, the stock has come back 23%.
Kinder Morgan is almost sure to raise its dividend by the end of the year. The company pays an annual dividend of $1.96 and has targeted a $2 per share dividend for this year, up 15% over its dividend in 2014. The dividend yield is more than 6%. The company is performing about where it projected itself to be, and it’s roughly equal to last year’s performance, even with commodity prices way down.
Kinder Morgan’s earnings per share matter much less to investors than its DCF. That’s how the company measures its performance and that’s the metric to keep an eye on.
The stock’s 52-week range is $25.81 to $44.71, and the consensus price target is $41.93. Shares traded around $31.75 in the mid-afternoon on Tuesday.
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