Energy

Oil Rig Count Dives by 20, Hedge Funds Load Up on Short Contracts

courtesy of BP

In the period ended January 8, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States totaled 516, compared with 536 in the prior week and 1,421 a year ago. Including 148 other rigs drilling for natural gas, there are a total of 664 working rigs in the country, down 34 week over week and down 1,086 year over year. The data come from the latest Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) North American Rotary Rig Count released on Friday.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for February delivery traded down about 1.2% on Friday to settle at $33.16, a drop of more nearly 10% for the week. The price fell further, to $32.88, in electronic trading. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last Wednesday that crude supplies had decreased by 5.1 million barrels in the week ended January 1, but that gasoline supplies had soared by 10.6 million barrels.

Geopolitics reared its head in the oil markets last week as Iran and Saudi Arabia have clashed in a (so far, mostly) war of words over the Saudi’s execution of a Shiite cleric. The impact on the markets has been modest, but it’s early days yet.

Another geopolitical event, again courtesy of Saudi Arabia, is a confirmation from Saudi Aramco that it is considering a public offering of shares in what may be the world’s most valuable company. Depending on how you choose to determine its value, Saudi Aramco could be worth anywhere from $3 trillion to $10 trillion. That’s trillion with a “tr.”

The number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States is down by 905 year over year and down by 20 week over week. The natural gas rig count dropped by 14, from 162 to 148. The count for natural gas rigs is down by 181 year over year. Continuing high production rates and warmer weather have forced the change, although colder weather is on tap for much of the United States in the next week. Natural gas closed the week $2.48 per million BTUs, a gain of 6.4% for the week.


Gasoline stockpiles increased by 10.6 million barrels last week and U.S. refineries ran at 92.5% of capacity, a week-over-week decrease of about 65,000 barrels a day. If, as seems likely, demand for gasoline has softened, refinery runs will be reduced and crude oil stockpiles will begin to rise and, worse for producers, could stay higher for longer.

Hedge funds — under the Managed Money heading in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders report — added 17,394 short contracts last week and dropped 6,921 long contracts. The movement reflects changes as of the January 5 settlement date. Managed money holds 231,998 long positions compared with 182,562 short positions. Open interest totaled 1,703,201. There were 62 hedge funds with large short positions last week.

Among the producers themselves, short positions outnumber longs, 375,379 to 162,630. The number of short positions rose by 6,582 contracts last week and longs rose by 7,801 positions. Positions among swaps dealers show 210,155 shorts versus 234,339 longs. Swaps dealers dropped 7,979 contracts from their short positions last week and also cut 5,147 long contracts.

Among the states, Texas dropped 13 rigs last week, while New Mexico, North Dakota and Oklahoma lost four each. West Virginia dropped three and Alaska, Colorado and Pennsylvania each dropped two. Arkansas, Kansas and Wyoming each lost one rig, while Louisiana added one, the only state to post an increase in its rig count last week.

In the Permian Basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, the rig count fell by eight to a total of 209. The Eagle Ford Basin in south Texas lost five rigs, bringing its total to 71. And the Williston Basin (Bakken) in North Dakota and Montana now has 49 working rigs, down four from the prior week.

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: EPD) lists a posted price of $29.61 per barrel for WTI and a January 9 price of $24.09 a barrel for North Dakota Light Sweet. The posted price for a barrel of Eagle Ford crude is $29.56, down $4.34 a barrel. The price for Permian Basin crude fell by $3.88 a barrel in the past week, while North Dakota crude’s price fell by about $5.65 a barrel.

The pump price of gasoline fell by about 0.8% week over week. Saturday morning’s average price in the United States was $1.977 a gallon, down from $1.994 a week ago.

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