Energy

Oil Rig Count Drops by 13, Hedge Funds Dump Short Positions

Paul Ausick

Published: February 27, 2016 9:45 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 12:38 pm

In the week ended February 19, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States totaled 400, compared with 413 in the prior week and 986 a year ago. Including 102 other rigs drilling for natural gas, there are a total of 502 working rigs in the country, down 12 week over week and down 765 year over year. The data come from the latest Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) North American Rotary Rig Count released on Friday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for April delivery traded down about 0.7% on Friday to settle at $32.84, a rise of about 3.4% for the week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last Wednesday that crude supplies had increased by 3.5 million barrels in the week ended February 19, and that gasoline supplies had fallen by 2.2 million barrels.

Crude prices fell early in the week following comments from Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi that production cuts were not going to happen. But as more exploration and production companies reported fourth-quarter results and expected capital spending in 2016, prices began working higher again.

The higher prices are based on sharp cutbacks in capex and, ultimately, production. Why this would move prices higher is unclear because most forecasts have been predicting a cut of around 600,000 barrels a day from U.S. shale plays. Whiting Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: WLL), one of the largest producers in the Bakken shale, said last week that it would cut capex by 80% in 2016 and drill no new wells, spending instead on completion, shut-downs and maintenance.

The catch, for Saudi Arabia, is that once crude comes back to $40 or so a barrel, these cuts could be forgotten and production could ramp up again fairly quickly. Then the price of crude will slump again, shale producers will wind down production, and the cycle will begin again. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

The number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States is down by 586 year over year and by 13 week over week. The natural gas rig count rose from 101 to 102. The count for natural gas rigs is down by 178 year over year. Natural gas for April delivery closed the week at $1.79 per million BTUs, down two cents from $1.81 at the end of the prior week.

U.S. refineries ran at 87.3% of capacity, a week-over-week decrease of about 163,000 barrels a day. Imports rose to around 7.8 million barrels a day in the week, a week-over-week decrease of 117,000 barrels a day.

Hedge funds — under the Managed Money heading in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders report — dumped 35,788 short contracts last week and added 8,603 long contracts. The movement reflects changes as of the February 23 settlement date. Managed money holds 275,705 long positions compared with 173,453 short positions. Open interest totaled 1,776,696. There were 72 hedge funds with large short positions last week, a decrease of two compared with the prior week.

Among the producers themselves, short positions outnumber longs by more than two to one, 437,036 to 176,022. The number of short positions rose by 3,461 contracts last week, and longs fell by 6,875 positions. Positions among swaps dealers show 210,730 shorts versus 258,565 longs. Swaps dealers added 23,058 contracts to their short positions last week and cut 10,840 long contracts.

Among the states, Texas dropped five rigs last week, New Mexico lost three, Alaska and California lost two each and Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah and Wyoming each lost one. Louisiana added two rigs and West Virginia added one.

In the Permian Basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, the rig count fell by one to a total of 164. The Eagle Ford Basin in south Texas dropped seven to a new total of 47, and the Williston Basin (Bakken) in North Dakota and Montana now has 36 working rigs, unchanged from the prior week.

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: EPD) lists a posted price of $29.23 per barrel for WTI and a February 27 price of $22.49 a barrel for North Dakota Light Sweet. The posted price for a barrel of Eagle Ford crude is $29.18. The price for all three crude varieties rose by $3.14 a barrel last week.

The pump price of gasoline rose by about 1.3% week over week. Saturday morning’s average price in the United States was $1.74 a gallon, up from $1.717 a week ago.