Energy

Oil Rig Count Dives by 15, Hedge Funds Massively Long

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In the week ended March 24, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States totaled 372, compared with 387 in the prior week and 813 a year ago. Including 92 other rigs drilling for natural gas, there are a total of 464 working rigs in the country, down 12 week over week and down 584 year over year. The data come from the latest Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) North American Rotary Rig Count released on Friday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for May delivery traded down about 0.5% on Thursday to settle at $39.59, a drop of about 3.8% for the week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last Wednesday that crude supplies had increased by 9.4 million barrels in the week ended March 11 and that gasoline supplies had fallen by 4.6 million barrels.

The EIA on Tuesday released a report on upstream costs in several of the most productive basins in the United States. The report was compiled by IHS and is dated last October.

Well drilling and completion costs fell by 25% to 30% between 2012, when costs were highest, and 2015. IHS expects rig rates to fall by 5% to 10% more in 2016 before rising by 5% in each of the next two years. Added efficiencies in a number of procedures are expected to lower the cost of a barrel of oil equivalent by 7% to 22% over the period through 2018.


The average capital cost of an onshore well in the regions IHS studied ranged from $4.9 million to $8.3 million. Drilling costs on an average horizontal well range from $1.8 million to $2.6 million, about 27% to 38% of the total cost of a well. Completion costs range from $2.9 million to $5.6 million, about 60% to 71% of a well’s total cost.

IHS also looked at offshore drilling costs in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Well costs are a function of water depth and drilling depth below the seafloor. In the shallower water, drilling and completion cost about $120 million per well. For the deepest wells the costs are nearly double, $230 million. IHS estimates that GOM wells sanctioned and begun between 2015 and 2021 will have a breakeven price below $50 a barrel. Projects that are currently unsanctioned may need a price above $60 a barrel in order to get approval.

The full report is available at the EIA website and it contains a wealth of detail.

The number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States is down by 441 year over year and down by 15 week over week. The natural gas rig count rose from 89 to 92. The count for natural gas rigs is down by 141 year over year. Natural gas for May delivery closed the week at $1.89 per million BTUs, down a dime from $1.99 at the end of the prior week. The low price for May delivery over the past 12 months is $1.73 per million BTUs.

U.S. refineries ran at 88.4% of capacity, a week-over-week decrease of about 176,000 barrels a day. Imports rose by 691,000 barrels a day, to around 8.4 million barrels a day in the week.

Hedge funds — under the Managed Money heading in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders report — dumped 33,864 short contracts last week and ditched 2,723 long contracts as well. The movement reflects changes as of the March 22 settlement date. Managed money holds 294,894 long positions compared with 68,813 short positions. Open interest totaled 1,705,631. There were 55 hedge funds with large short positions last week, a decrease of two compared with the prior week. Hedge funds have cut short positions sharply for five consecutive weeks.

Among the producers themselves, short positions outnumber longs by more than two to one, 438,768 to 151,986. The number of short positions rose by 678 contracts last week, and longs dropped by 18,389 positions. Positions among swaps dealers show 241,846 shorts versus 2231,699 longs. Swaps dealers cut 6,241 contracts from their long positions last week and added 3,884 short positions.

Among the states, Texas lost eight rigs last week, Oklahoma gave up three, Alaska lost two and Kansas and Pennsylvania each lost one. New Mexico added one rig.

In the Permian Basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, the rig count dropped by five to 147. The Eagle Ford Basin in south Texas lost four rigs for a new total of 41, and the Williston Basin (Bakken) in North Dakota and Montana now has 31 working rigs, flat with the prior week.

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: EPD) lists a posted price of $35.91 per barrel for WTI and a March 26 price of $30.30 a barrel for North Dakota Light Sweet. The posted price for a barrel of Eagle Ford crude is $35.86. The price for all three varieties rose by two cents a barrel over the past week. That gain compares to a rise of $0.94 a barrel last week, $2.58 a barrel in the week before that and a rise of $3.14 a barrel three weeks ago for WTI and Eagle Ford. North Dakota crude added $4.27 a barrel three weeks ago.

The pump price of gasoline rose by about 2.8% week over week. Saturday morning’s average price in the United States was $2.036 a gallon, up from $1.981 a week ago.

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