Why First Solar Shares Could Still Rally 35% or More

Solar PV maker First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) held its analyst day meeting on Tuesday, and while the company did not provide expected fiscal year 2017 guidance, the information it did provide kept at least some analysts happy. Analysts at Janney Montgomery Scott, for example, said they remain positive on the stock and reiterated their Buy rating and $86 price target.

For its recently completed 2015 fiscal year, the company reported earnings per share of $5.37, up from $3.90 per share in the prior year. Guidance for 2016 remains at $4.00 to $4.50 per share.

Janney’s analyst based its rating and target on three items: shares are trading at 18 times the firm’s 2017 earnings per share forecast; $15 per share cash hoard; and $4 per share ownership stake in 8point3 Energy Partners L.P. (NASDAQ: CAFD).

On the PV technology front, Janney cited 24% efficiency in its CdTe (cadmium telluride) technology for its research cells, 21.7% in its research modules and 19% efficiency in field modules. In addition to these impressive efficiency gains, First Solar unveiled the Series 5 and Series 6 Mock PV modules due out in 2018 and 2019, respectively. The Series 5 module increases output to 385 watts and the Series 6 is targeting 400 watts.
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First Solar also expects to maintain its net cash position of $1.9 billion to $2.2 billion this year, with a projected drop to $1.0 billion to $1.5 billion in the future.

In its summary, Janney noted:

While not offering some form of initial 2017 guidance negatively impacted share prices yesterday (in our opinion), we came away from the First Solar analyst day with strengthened conviction in our positive investment thesis. The technology roadmap is impressive, and the multi-year outlook for improvements positions FSLR exceptionally well from a competitive standpoint versus its peers. A growing pipeline of opportunities points to increasing project builds, where again FSLR is well positioned to capture more than its fair share of the best opportunities given its low cost of capital, vertical integration, reputation and technology. Barring a general downturn in the overall market, we expect these positive attributes to lead to long term value creation for new and existing shareholders. And we still believe the bias in estimates for 2017 will be up, not down.

Shares traded higher in the noon hour Wednesday morning at $62.95, up about 0.8%, in a 52-week range of $40.25 to $74.29. The consensus price target on the stock is $78.51.