A lot of things have taken place in the oil and gas sector of late. Positive things for a change. After briefly dipping below $30 earlier in 2016, the price of oil remained above $46 on Friday, May 13. Many of the most at-risk oil stocks that have not gone into bankruptcy or that are close to it have seen their shares rise handily, some with gains of 50% to 100% or more from the lows.
Investors have been looking for opportunities in the stock market, and they also have searched for long-term opportunities in the oil patch. 24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst research reports each morning of the week. This becomes hundreds of research reports over the course of each week. There are many analyst calls covering stocks to buy, and some of them are in the oil and gas sector.
Investors need to understand that the oil and gas companies are still not totally back in the clear. Even with oil above $45 a barrel, many companies still will operate in zombie-mode. There also continue to be bankruptcies, and layoffs will continue at many companies. The overhang on oil likely will not last forever, but many of the oversupply issues and demand issues may be with us for some time.
Keep in mind that analysts generally do not possess any more knowledge or information than is available to institutional investors or to the most astute individual investors who know the ins and out of the oil patch. Analyst calls often make the wrong assumptions, and sometimes things change that wreck expectations. Furthermore, even though these are long-term calls rather than swing-trade ideas, these calls will prove way too optimistic if the price oil decides to head back under $40 again.
The week of May 14 brought a few oil and gas analyst upgrades or positive coverage initiations. These upside targets have been listed from each analyst call if available, and the consensus analyst price targets are from Thomson First Call. Here are seven positive analyst upgrades or initiations from the energy sector during the week of May 14, with a bonus call at the end.
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: EPD) was started as Outperform with a $33 price target (versus a $25.69 prior close) at Bernstein on May 11. It is considered one of the best master limited partnerships (MLPs) of them all, and Merrill Lynch also featured it quite favorably as well in the past week. It had a consensus analyst price target of $31.92 and has a 52-week range of $19.00 to $34.56. Its distribution yield-equivalent is just over 6%. Enterprise Products closed at $26.26 on Friday.
Kosmos Energy Ltd. (NYSE: KOS) was raised to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James on May 11, which was after the earnings report and news of an offshore gas discovery in Senegal. Kosmos Energy was given a $7 price target in this upgrade, versus the prior close of $4.83. Friday’s closing price was $5.01. The consensus price target is $8.08, and the 52-week range is $3.17 to $9.32. This company is less known than other U.S. oil and gas outfits, as it is based in Bermuda and exploring for and producing oil and gas in Africa, Europe and South America.
Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) was included in a large list of stocks to Buy from Deutsche Bank in the oil patch this week. The firm thinks that $50 is now the inflection point for oil and it has several winners. Marathon is said to have higher multiple businesses and the upstream cash margins have room to move up, even as the shares have a net asset value discount relative to industry peers. Marathon investors are paid a 1.61% dividend. The $18 Deutsche Bank target was well above the consensus target of $14.75 at the time, as well as the Thursday close at $12.33 per share. Marathon closed at $12.30 on Friday, and its 52-week range is $6.52 to $28.27.
Oasis Petroleum Inc. (NYSE: OAS) was raised to Buy from Hold and the price target was raised to $12 from $9 (versus an $8.68 prior close) at Jefferies. The firm noted that Oasis again showed sharp cost reductions and its sixth straight quarter of flat volumes despite plunging investment. The firm did warn that the stock remains a higher-risk investment given high financial leverage, but stronger world oil markets and a strong inventory make this one compelling to Jefferies. A Wunderlich research note on May 11 maintained a Hold rating but raising its price target to $8 from $4. Topeka Capital Markets also reiterated its Buy rating Oasis Petroleum on May 10, raising its price target to $14 from $10. Oasis shares closed at $9.43 on Friday, with a consensus price target of $9.95 and a 52-week range of $3.40 to $17.96.
Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB) was featured as a top oil stock to buy by RBC Capital Markets on May 10. The company will get to enjoy its leadership role in oil and gas services now that the Halliburton-Baker Hughes deal is off. Investors also get a solid 2.7% dividend yield. RBC’s price objective was listed at $95, versus the consensus price target at the time of $87.41. Schlumberger shares were at $72.77 ahead of the call, and Friday’s close brought a $72.43 price.
Williams Companies Inc. (NYSE: WMB) was started as Outperform with a $25 price target in a sector call this week from Bernstein. This analyst action call implied some 30% upside from the prior $19.14 close, but that was without considering the double-digit distribution yield, if that payout remains. Williams’ consensus price target was $24.69 at the time, but that rose to $25.50 by the end of the week. Shares closed at $19.35 on Friday, in a 52-week range of $10.22 to $61.38.
Williams Partners L.P. (NYSE: WPZ) was also a part of the Bernstein call, with the firm assigning an Outperform rating here as well. Bernstein’s $40 price target implied upside of a sharp 48% from the $26.92 prior close. That upside is also without considering its double-digit distribution yield, if it remains in place. Investors took this note to heart it seems. Units of Williams Partners were up 2.2% at $27.50 late on Wednesday, and the closing price on Friday was $30.19 after a 3.5% gain. It has a consensus target price of $55.00 and a 52-week range of $12.69 to $59.44.
The bonus eighth stock included here is U.S. Silica Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SLCA), but it comes with a caveat. This is from a Jefferies research call earlier in the week. Jefferies has an official Hold rating on the stock rather than a Buy rating, but the way the analyst talked this one up it sounds like the firm may be issuing an upgrade soon. Jefferies featured U.S. Silica quite positively against other related stocks on which it already has Buy ratings. On May 9, the Jefferies report said:
The frac sand industry has lowered its cost structure this downturn, in large part through capacity expansion, including of Regional/Brown sands. We believe some industry adoption of Brown sand is likely to be permanent, which can delay the recovery in frac sand pricing. We believe U.S. Silica is best positioned to benefit from Brown sand growth given its position and balance sheet. Proprietary analysis includes a bottoms-up cost curve and sand mine hours.
U.S. Silica shares closed down 1.9% at $25.04 on Friday, with a consensus price target of $28.19 and a 52-week range of $13.48 to $34.99.
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