Energy

Oil Rig Count Fell by 7 Last Week, Hedge Funds Bet Wrong on Brexit

Paul Ausick

Published: June 25, 2016 8:52 am

Last Updated: January 13, 2020 6:23 am

In the week ended June 24, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States totaled 330, down by 7 compared with the prior week and a total of 628 a year ago. Including 90 other rigs drilling for natural gas and one rig listed as “miscellaneous,” there are a total of 421 working rigs in the country, down 3 week over week and down 438 year over year. The data come from the latest Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) North American Rotary Rig Count released on Friday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for August delivery traded down more than 5% on Friday to settle at $47.64, down about 0.7% for the week after posting a weekly high of $50.54 on Wednesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last Wednesday that crude supplies had decreased by 900,000 barrels in the week ended June 17, and that gasoline supplies had risen by 600,000 barrels.

Crude oil prices were hammered Friday following the U.K. vote to leave the European Union. Although the outcome of the vote was a surprise (even the British bookies had it wrong), the impact on markets was not. The dollar rose sharply which always puts downward pressure on crude priced in dollars.

While a recession may not be forthcoming, most economists expect British GDP to fall and that will chill the economy in the rest of the European Union, the United Kingdom’s biggest trading partner.

Brexit’s impact on the future of crude markets is not likely to be as large as the impact it had on Friday. By historical standards, a drop of around 5% in crude prices is not that big a deal. Britain is a relatively small consumer of crude oil, taking just 1.6 million barrels a day, a number that hasn’t changed much in a decade. The rest of the EU consumes more than 11 million barrels a day, another total that has not changed much in 10 years. Lower consumption in either or both would have little impact on global crude prices.

The number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States is down by 298 year over year and down by 7 week over week. The natural gas rig count rose by 4 rigs to 90. The count for natural gas rigs is down by 138 year over year. Natural gas for July delivery closed the week at $2.70 per million BTUs, up about 8 cents compared with the prior week. The low price for natural gas over the past 12 months is $1.99 per million BTUs.

U.S. refineries ran at 91.3% of capacity, a week-over-week increase of about 188,000 barrels a day. Imports rose by about 817,000 barrels a day, to around 8.4 million barrels a day in the week.

Hedge funds — under the Managed Money heading in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders report — dumped 17,595 short contracts last week, and added 10,683 long contracts. The movement reflects changes as of the June 21 settlement date. Managed money holds 279,417 long positions compared with 98,441 short positions. Open interest totaled 1,726,381. There were 48 hedge funds with large short positions last week, down by 3 compared with the prior week. Like the rest of us, the hedgies were expecting the British vote to go the other way and keep oil prices moving higher.

Among the producers themselves, short positions outnumber longs by less than 3 to 1, 449,722 to 173,452. The number of short positions fell by 7,314 contracts last week, and longs fell by 8,115 contracts. Positions among swaps dealers show 258,900 short contracts versus 217,589 long positions. Swaps dealers added 7,492 contracts to their short positions last week and 8,244 contracts to their long positions.

Among the states, Texas added 13 rigs last week, North Dakota added 2, and Alaska and Colorado added 1 rig each. Louisiana lost 5 rigs, Oklahoma lost 4, and West Virginia lost 1 rig.

In the Permian Basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, the rig count rose by 4 to 150. The Eagle Ford Basin in south Texas remained unchanged with a rig count of 34, and the Williston Basin (Bakken) in North Dakota and Montana now has 26 working rigs, up 2 compared with the prior week.

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE: EPD) lists a posted price of $45.56 per barrel for WTI and a June 25 price of $46.51 a barrel for Eagle Ford crude. The price for both varieties rose by $2.90 a barrel over the past week.

The pump price of gasoline fell by about 1.2% week over week. Saturday morning’s average price in the United States was $2.311 a gallon, down from $2.341 a week ago. The year-ago price was $2.781 a gallon.