Asset Sale Props Up Exxon Stock as Pricing Hammers Profits

Energy

Published: January 31, 2020 8:45 am

Last Updated: January 31, 2020 8:46 am

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) reported estimated fourth-quarter and full-year 2019 results before markets opened Friday. For the quarter, the integrated oil and gas giant posted quarterly diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.33 on revenues of $67.17 billion. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $1.41 on revenues of $71.9 billion. Fourth-quarter results also compare to the consensus estimates for EPS of $0.45 on revenues of $64.58 billion.

For the full year, Exxon reported revenues of $264.94 billion and EPS of $3.36, compared with 2018 revenues totaling $290.21 billion and EPS of $4.88. Analysts had forecast full-year EPS of $2.32 and revenues of $266.02 billion.

Fourth-quarter and full-year earnings include a benefit of $3.9 billion related to the divestment of the company’s divestment of upstream assets in Norway.

Net income in the quarter dropped by 5% from $6.0 billion a year ago to $5.7 billion. Oil-equivalent production was essentially flat year over year in the quarter at 4.0 million barrels a day.

Earnings in the company’s upstream (exploration and production) fell by $197 million due to lower natural gas prices and “higher growth-related expenses.” Downstream earnings (refining and marketing) dropped by $92 million year over year due to “narrower North American crude differentials and unfavorable mark-to-market derivatives.”

Capital spending totaled $8.46 billion in the quarter, up 8% year over year. For the year, capex totaled $31.15 billion, up 20% compared with 2018. Operating cash flow totaled $33.41 billion, including asset sales.

CEO and Chair Darren Woods said:

Our operations performed well, while short-term supply length in the downstream and chemicals businesses impacted margins and financial results. Growth in demand for the products that underpin our businesses remains strong. We remain focused on improving our base businesses, driving efficiencies, and optimizing the value of our investment portfolio.

The company did not provide guidance in its press release, but analysts are expecting first-quarter EPS of $0.79 on revenues of $67.79 billion, compared with EPS of $1.41 and revenues of $71.89 billion in the first quarter of 2019. For the full year, analysts are looking for EPS of $3.50 on revenues of $268.13 billion.

In our earnings preview Thursday, we noted that asset sales can’t support a dividend forever. Exxon’s $3.9 billion sale of its Norwegian asset sales represented more than half of fourth-quarter earnings and almost a third of full-year earnings. CEO Woods’s comment that demand growth remains strong may be true for volumes but pricing is constrained in all the company’s businesses. With this kind of success, investors are right to wonder about the sustainability of the company’s 5.43% dividend yield.

Exxon’s shares traded down about 1.4% in Friday’s premarket session at $63.85. The stock’s 52-week range is $63.43 to $83.49. Analysts had a 12-month price target of $77.29 before this morning’s report.

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