Given the enthusiasm among many analysts and investors for clean energy and ESG (environmental, social and governance) stocks, Monday’s actions by analysts at Goldman Sachs may seem a bit out of whack. In a research note, the firm calls four solar energy stocks a Buy, three to remain Neutral and three more to Sell.
Analysts Brian Lee and Baoyi Zhou wrote that overall they remain positive on solar stocks in 2021, citing long-term growth prospects, cheap financing and renewed government support. The downside, however, is oversupply.
The analysts estimate that approximately 120 gigawatts (GW) of new module capacity over 2020 and 2021 far outruns some 25 GW of new demand. That will drive down factory utilization rates and put pressure on prices and margins for makers of solar panels.
Solar installation growth is expected to reach 18% in 2021 (134 GW), and the compound annual growth rate is forecast at 17% through 2024. The analysts also expect battery storage sales to more than double year over year, with demand continuing to outstrip supply and pushing prices and margins higher.
Here are the 10 solar stocks that Goldman reviewed.
Sunnova Energy
Sunnova Energy International Inc. (NYSE: NOVA) provides approximately 80,000 customers with residential solar and energy storage services, including operations, maintenance and upgrades. Over the past 12 months, the stock has added about 290% to its share price. Shares posted a new 52-week high on Monday.
The company made Goldman’s Americas Conviction Buy list, and the analysts have raised their price target on the stock from $45 to $60. The mean target is $40.50, even though Sunnova is not expected to post a profit for two more years. The stock trades at a multiple of 26.8 to expected sales in 2020 and 19.9 in 2021.
The stock traded up more than 2% Tuesday morning, at $45.97 in a 52-week range of $6.12 to $49.34. Based on Goldman’s price target, the 12-month potential upside on Sunnova stock is 33%.
Enphase Energy
Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: ENPH) makes devices known as microinverters that attach to each module of a solar panel and convert direct current to alternating current. The company also makes monitoring and control software for solar installations. Its shares rose by more than 570% in 2020.
Goldman Sachs raised its rating on Enphase from Neutral to Buy and lifted the price target from $258 to $313. The mean price target is $126.50, and the multiple to expected 2021 earnings per share (EPS) is 92.6, falling to 68.7 in 2022.
Shares traded up more than 6% to $182.60, in a 52-week range of $21.49 to $189.41. Enphase sports a potential upside of 35%, based on Goldman’s 12-month price target.
Array Technologies
Array Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: ARRY) manufactures and sells solar tracking products, along with a software package that adjusts a solar array to take into account weather and other site conditions. Since coming public last October, the shares have added more than 16%.
Goldman has a Buy rating on the stock and boosted its price target from $50 to $52. The mean target is $46, and the stock trades at multiples of 47.1 and 40.1 to expected 2021 and 2022 EPS, respectively.
The stock traded up about 1.8%, at $43.19 in a 52-week range of $29.05 to $50.99. At recent prices, Goldman’s upside on the stock is 23%.
SunPower
SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) sells solar panels and components to dealers, integrators and distributors. The company is majority-owned by France’s Total, and it split-off its design and manufacturing business last August. Shares jumped by more than 420% in the past 12 months.
The company has a Buy rating from Goldman’s analysts, who also raised their price target from $23 to $33. The mean price target is $16, and shares traded at multiples of 78.8 and 36.3, respectively, to estimated 2021 and 2022 EPS.
Shares traded flat Tuesday at $25.31. The 52-week trading range is $2.64 to $32.19. Goldman’s potential upside on SunPower stock is 30%.
SolarEdge Technologies
Israel-based SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: SEDG) makes direct current inverter systems for solar energy systems. The company is also involved in other solar industry segments, including lithium-ion cells and batteries and storage systems. SolarEdge stock rose more than 200% last year.
Goldman lowered its rating on the stock from Positive to Neutral while boosting the price target from $258 to $313. The mean price target is $274.50 and the consensus multiple to projected 2021 and 2022 EPS, respectively, are 64.2 and 49.4.
Shares traded up about 1.6%, at $316.28 in a 52-week range of $67.02 to $335.80. The 12-month potential upside to Goldman’s price target is 1%.
Maxeon Solar Technologies
Singapore-based Maxeon Solar Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: MAXN) makes solar panels under the SunPower brand. The company was split off from SunPower last August, a move that got SunPower out of the manufacturing business. Since then, the shares have dropped about 18%.
Goldman lowered its rating on the stock from Positive to Sell, but it raised its price target from $15 to $18. Because Maxeon only sells to SunPower, its price-to-sales ratio is essentially meaningless, and the company is expected to post per-share losses in 2021 and 2022.
The stock traded up about 2.7% to $31.61, in a 52-week range of $11.78 to $37.99. Goldman’s downside to recent prices is 42%.
Jinko Solar
This is a China-based manufacturer and seller of PV products including solar cells, modules and wafers. Jinko Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS) shares increased by nearly 185% in the past 12 months, even after a follow-on offering of $100 million in American depositary shares in early December.
Goldman cut its rating on Jinko Solar from Positive to Sell. However, it lifted its price target on the stock from $34 to $39. The mean target price is $20, and the stock trades at 15.5 times its expected 2021 EPS and 13.4 times expected 2022 earnings.
The stock traded up about 1.8% to $65.19 early Tuesday, in a 52-week range of $11.42 to $90.20. At recent prices, Goldman’s downside on the stock is 39%.
Sunrun
Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) designs, develops, installs, owns and maintains residential solar energy systems in the United States. The company recently completed its $3.2 billion acquisition of Vivint. Shares rose by more than 400% in 2020.
Goldman reduced its rating on the stock from Positive to Neutral but raised its price target from $61 to $67 per share. The mean target is $54, and the stock trades at 80.5 times expected 2021 earnings and 87.1 times expected 2022 EPS.
The shares traded up about 3.6%, at $72.50 in a 52-week range of $7.84 to $82.42. Goldman’s potential downside on the stock is 4%.
Canadian Solar
Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) designs, manufactures and sells solar products, including cells and modules. The company also develops and sells power generation plants. The stock added nearly 140% to its value last year.
Goldman cut its rating on the shares from Buy to Neutral while raising the price target from $43 to $48. The mean price target is $46, and shares traded at around 61 times expected 2021 EPS and 24 times expected 2022 EPS.
The shares traded down about 1.2% Tuesday morning, at $52.00 in a 52-week range of $12.00 to $56.42. The Goldman analysts’ potential downside on the stock is 9%.
First Solar
First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) designs and manufactures its own modules, and the company’s systems segment designs and builds solar energy systems. First Solar stock rose by about 67% in 2020.
Goldman cut its rating on First Solar from Buy to Sell and sliced its price target from $101 to $81 per share. The mean price target is $92, and the stock trades at around 25.8 times expected 2021 EPS and 26.2 times expected 2022 EPS.
At Goldman’s target, shares have a potential downside of 20% over the next 12 months. The stock traded down about 6.8% Tuesday morning, at $94.36 in a 52-week range of $28.47 to $109.09.
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