Should Gilead Really Be Rated Underperform?

Health and Healthcare

Published: July 29, 2015 1:27 pm

Last Updated: April 28, 2020 4:52 am

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Most analysts seem to be behind the growth that Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) has seen, namely in its Hepatitis C vaccines (HCV) Harvoni and Solvaldi. For the most part the resulting analyst calls on this biotech are very positive and back up this view. 24/7 Wall St. just wants to show the other side of the fence and what more bearish analysts see; perhaps something that the bulls might have missed.

In the second quarter, Gilead reported $3.15 in EPS and total product sales of $8.126 billion, topping consensus estimates of$2.70 in EPS on $7.584 billion, respectively. At the same time, the HCV franchise delivered a beat with total sales of $4.899 billion ($3.608 billion of Harvoni and $1.291 billion of Sovaldi) exceeding the consensus estimates by nearly $600 million.

According to Merrill Lynch, roughly 130,000 patients in the U.S. and 55,000 patients in the EU were treated with Gilead’s HCV’s in the first half of 2015. However, the firm believes that the peak is now behind us with declining warehoused patient demand. Merrill Lynch estimates 256,000 patients will be treated in the U.S. in 2015 while the number goes down to 246,000 in 2016.

Furthermore, the firm predicts pricing weakness in the HCV market in early 2016 with anticipated market entry by Merck & Co. Inc.’s (NYSE: MRK) fixed dose combination of grazoprevir/elbasvir. Merrill Lynch’s estimates of third quarter and fourth quarter HCV product sales stand at $4.4 billion and $4.3 billion, respectively. The analysts applaud Gilead’s execution in the HCV launch; however, in the long run, the firm notes decreasing market size and additional price cuts.

As a result, Merrill Lynch reiterated an Underperform rating but raised its price objective to $107 from $101.

Ultimately Merrill Lynch gave its investment rational as:

We rate Gilead Underperform as we believe pricing trends in the HCV market could intensify over time and as additional competitors enter the market which would negatively affect the overall size of the HCV market.

Other analysts had this to say about the biotech giant:

Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $135 from $125.
Oppenheimer has an Outperform rating and raised its price target to $120 from $86.
Needham has a Buy rating and raised its price target to $125 from $120.
RBC has an Outperform rating and raised its price target to $130 from $120.
Moody’s Investors Service commented that sales of Gilead’s HVC drugs, Sovaldi and Harvoni, continued their strong and impressive streak in the second quarter. Gilead is rated A3 with a positive rating outlook.

Shares of Gilead were up 4.1% at $117.70 on Wednesday. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $124.47 and a 52-week trading range of $85.95 to $123.37.

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