Health and Healthcare

4 Top Pharma Stocks That Should Outperform Out To 2016

With a very nervous market, and the end of summer doldrums upon us, it may be time to look for ideas that will make sense when the market heats back up in the fall. One area that looks very intriguing is large cap pharmaceuticals.

Even though they have outperformed the S&P 500 up 8.1% versus the index 1.6%, the top companies are still way under owned by portfolio managers as a percentage of the overall S&P.

In a new research report from SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, they are very positive on the sector for the rest of 2015, and expect the group to outperform due to solid innovation led new-product pipelines, a very attractive long-term 5 year growth rate, the aforementioned under ownership on Wall Street, and favorable status in a rising interest rate environment.

These are the four top pharmaceutical stocks rated as Buy, and three of them are considered to be the top sector picks at SunTrust.

AbbVie

This is the big pharmaceutical that could have among the most upside potential for investors. AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV) is a global, research-based biopharmaceutical company formed in 2013 following separation from Abbott Laboratories. The company’s mission is to use its expertise, dedicated people and unique approach to innovation to develop and market advanced therapies that address some of the world’s most complex and serious diseases.

AbbVie employs more than 26,000 people worldwide and markets medicines in more than 170 countries. Many on Wall Street including the SunTrust team believe that the stock is trading relatively “cheap”, and that AbbVie’s pipeline is under appreciated as it will be difficult for competitors to make a generic version of its Humira, a drug to treat rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn’s disease.

Also with numerous clinical read-outs for the stock over the rest of 2015 the stock could have anywhere from $15 to $25 per share upside from current levels. AbbVie and partner Roche announced recently that their experimental leukemia candidate, Venetoclax, achieved the primary endpoint overall response rate in a phase II study. Some analysts on Wall Street think that if approved, the drug could capture annual sales of $2 billion by 2020. It works by blocking BCL-2, a protein that prevents self-destruction of defective or cancerous cells in the body.

AbbVie investors are paid a very solid 2.95% dividend. The SunTrust price target is at $85, and the Thomson/First Call consensus figure is posted much lower at $76.93. The stock closed Monday at $69.37.

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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company

This company is one of the top three picks at SunTrust. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) is a global pharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, licensing and marketing chemically-synthesized drugs or small molecules, and biologics in various therapeutic areas, including virology comprising human immunodeficiency virus infection (HIV); oncology; neuroscience; immunoscience; and cardiovascular.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration had granted accelerated approval to Opdivo (nivolumab), a new treatment for patients with unresectable (cannot be removed by surgery) or metastatic (advanced) melanoma who no longer respond to other drugs in last year.

The FDA recently pushed back the decision date on an expanded use of Opdivo to Nov. 27, it was originally expected on August 27th. Bristol Myers submitted additional clinical-trial data, which amounts to a “Major amendment” that requires additional time to review.

Bristol Myers investors are paid a 2.35% dividend. The SunTrust price target is posted at $74, and the consensus is lower at $70.78. The stock closed the day Monday at $63.47.

Eli Lilly

This stock checks in at high on the global pharmaceutical lists at many top Wall Street firms and is a top pick at SunTrust. Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is somewhat surprisingly out of consensus with portfolio managers at mutual fund and hedge funds, or what is known as the buy side. It also has more neutral ratings than buy ratings on Wall Street.

The company reported second quarter earnings $0.90, which was above the consensus of 0.74. Second-quarter revenues declined 4% to $4.979 billion, reflecting generic competition for Cymbalta and Evista in the U.S. as well as some negative currency movement. However, revenues surpassed the consensus estimate of $4.841 billion.

The company’s new cancer drug Cyramza won FDA approval for label expansion recently. It treats patients suffering from metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). This was the fourth Cyramza approval in a one year period; it already has approval to treat advanced or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma and metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Cyramza has so far generated sales of $67.5 million.

The SunTrust team and other analysts on Wall Street love the company’s product pipeline and many think that Lilly’s Solanezumab drug for Alzheimer’s phase 3 data, and Jardiance, the company’s drug for diabetes, CV data are both huge upcoming catalysts that could drive the stock. The recent phase 3 data on Evacetrapib was very solid and just another positive for the company.

Lilly shareholders are paid a solid 2.4% dividend. The SunTrust price target for the stock is $98, and the consensus price target for the stock is $90.94. Shares closed Monday at $83.47.

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Merck

This is another top pick at SunTrust and another big pharmaceutical leader that posted outstanding second quarter earnings. Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) remains a leading healthcare company that is on the focus lists of many of the top firms we cover. The company’s numerous prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies, and consumer care and animal health products, are provided to customers in more than 140 countries.

Merck is the world’s fourth-biggest drug maker by revenue and boosted its annual profit forecast after the company beat first-quarter earnings and sales estimates, fueled by higher demand for vaccines and diabetes treatments.

The second quarter earnings were very solid as the company reported adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.86, beating estimates of $0.81 by $0.05. Revenue for the quarter was at $9.8 billion, matching the consensus estimate.

Hedge Fund manager Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital has jumped into the big pharmaceutical and biotech waters as second quarter filings revealed stakes in Merck, Pfizer and other top companies.

Merck shareholders are paid a solid 3.04% dividend. The SunTrust price target for the stock $72, and the consensus is posted at $65.65. Shares closed Monday at $59.71.

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The large cap pharmaceutical stocks are a good ship to get onboard when the sailing ahead could be rocky. Typically September and October are the danger-zone months for the markets, so this is a solid way to shift capital to play the fall.

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