How Relevant is Vital Therapies After Its Selloff?

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By Jon C. Ogg Published
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Vital Therapies Inc. (NASDAQ: VTL) was last seen trading down 80% at $3.41 (versus $17.68 close) after it said that its Phase 3 trial in AILD (alcohol-induced liver decompensation) failed.

Vital Therapies was downgraded to Underperform from Buy and the price objective was slashed to $5 from $40 at BofA Merrill Lynch.

Canaccord Genuity maintained its Buy rating, but lowered its price target down to $8 from $35. The downgrade from Canaccord Genuity said:

We maintain our Buy rating and lower our price target to $8 based on our probability adjusted net present valuation, which includes $3/share in net cash. We reached our price target based on reduced market opportunity for ELAD in a narrow subset of AILD patients assuming success, and risk of a still to be determined design of a new Phase 3 trial.

Other analyst downgrades were seen as follows:

  • Credit Suisse cut the rating to Neutral with a $9 price target.
  • SunTrust Robinson Humphrey downgraded its rating to Neutral from Buy with a $5 price target.
  • William Blair cut its rating to Market Perform from Outperform.

The real question now is whether or not Vital Therapies remains vital or irrelevant. Any time a drop of 77% is seen in the price of shares in a single session, usually the fear is that a company is now irrelevant and has little or no assured future.

Vital Therapies saw its stock down 77% at $3.96 on Monday, and this stock would have faced a crush-depth selling frenzy whether the market was volatile or not. Its $95 million market cap comes with a 52-week range of $3.51 to $29.67 and law firms have already announced their investigations into whether or not a class action law suit will be mounted on behalf of shareholders.

That $95 million market cap compares to a June 30, 2015 cash balance of $73.3 million and it had an average burn rate of just over $14 million in each of the last two quarterly periods.

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About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.

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