A research note from biotech boutique Leerink notes that on an overall basis the analysts are bullish on large-cap biotechs in front of second-quarter earnings. Despite Fed chair Janet Yellen’s comments on the industry, many of the top names are expected to have a solid earnings reporting season.
The Leerink team mentioned four specific top names that may have the ability to beat current earnings expectations. We have one caveat on this matter. Betting on earnings upsides to these top biotech stocks would only be suitable for investors with a very aggressive risk profile. It should go without saying that any earnings disappointment, or poor forward guidance, could significantly damage the stocks of any of these companies.
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) is one of the mega cap biotechs that Leerink thinks could rebound from a very soft first quarter. Over the past five years, the company has had free cash flow of at least $3 billion a year. Over the past decade, the company has grown after-tax profit by 14% compounded annually.
The primary focuses at Amgen from a pipeline standpoint are results from the interim analysis of phase-3 ASPIRE data for Kyprolis and regulatory update of the PCSK9 program. Both could be huge for the stock. Investors are paid a 2% dividend. The Leerink price target is $125, and the Thomson/First Call consensus target is $132.82 Amgen shares traded at $117.15 Wednesday.
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Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) is rated Outperform at Leerink, and it is another favorite name to buy ahead of the second-quarter earnings report. The Leerink team thinks that overall positive prescription trends could add to the numbers and may fuel a beat when earnings are released. With the successful hepatitis C drug Sovaldi launched, many others on Wall Street will also be watching closely for the sales figures and other metrics related to the drug. Some top firms are also looking for Gilead to retire some convertible debt. Leerink has a $99 price target, but the consensus price is at $101.57, and shares recently traded at $87.36.
Pharmacyclics Inc. (NASDAQ: PCYC) is rated Market Perform at Leerink. The company recently announced that the FDA will review its supplemental New Drug Application seeking full approval of Imbruvica for treating patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia and small lymphocytic lymphoma who have been treated at least once before for the disease, on a priority basis. An October decision is expected. The Leerink team thinks it is another company with strong prescription trends that could boost earnings past expectations. Their price target is $102, while the consensus is a sky-high $148.63. Pharmacyclics traded at $93.35 Wednesday.
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Seattle Genetics Inc. (NASDAQ: SGEN) shares were absolutely demolished in the spring biotech sell-off, but the stock carries a rating of Outperform. The company warned investors then that it likely would change the trial design for the ongoing ECHELON-1 (E-1) and ECHELON-2 (E-2) trials of Adcetris plus AVD for Hodgkin lymphoma and Adcetris plus CHP newly diagnosed T-cell lymphoma, to potentially allow earlier looks at the data.
Many Wall Street analysts think that the uncertainty surrounding the changes has weighed heavily on the stock. Some also think that the trials may hold data related to efficacy that is much better than expected. The Leerink team likes the potential for a very good quarter for the stock, and it is not out of the question Seattle Genetics could see strong Adcetris prescription growth aided by off-label use by physicians. Leerink’s price target is $53, and the consensus target is $45.15. Shares traded Wednesday at $35.20.
Before thinking Leerink is the only biotech bull here, consider that UBS was also very bullish on biotech ahead of earnings as recently as July 9.
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