Health and Healthcare

Celgene Expects to More Than Triple Earnings by 2020

Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) provided a preliminary look at its financials for 2014 but also gave its financial outlook for 2015 and far beyond at the Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. While growth targets were set for 2015, Celgene effectively said that it plans to more than triple its earnings per share by 2020.

In 2015, total net product sales are expected to be approximately $9.0 billion to $9.5 billion, which is a 22% increase year-over-year. Earnings per share in 2015 are expected to be in the range of $4.60 to $4.75, an increase of 26% from the previous year. Thomson Reuters has recent consensus estimates of $4.86 in earnings per share and $9.26 billion in revenue.

Specifically, for the full-year 2015, Revlimid net sales are expected to be in the range of $5.6 billion to $5.7 billion.

The preliminary financial results for 2014, compared to the previous year, were expected to be:

  • Total net product sales up 19% to $7.56 billion
  • Revlimid sales up 16% to $4.98 billion
  • Abraxane sales up 31% to $848 billion
  • Pomalyst sales up 123% to $680 million
  • Otezla sales of $70 million
  • Earnings per share of $3.71, up 24%

The consensus estimates are $3.68 in earnings per share and $7.66 billion in revenue for the full year 2014.

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Bob Hugin, Celgene’s chairman and CEO, commented:

2014 was an exceptional year for Celgene and the momentum from our core businesses positions us for another year of outstanding execution. The depth of our 2014 accomplishments creates an inflection point, providing greater clarity on the opportunities for 2020 and beyond.

Looking even farther out, Celgene has estimates for 2017 and 2020. For 2017 the company has a net sales target in the range of $13 billion to $14 billion and earnings per share are expected to be approximately $7.50. For 2020, Celgene expects to exceed $20 billion in net product sales and earnings per share are anticipated to exceed $12.50 — versus less than $4.00 expected for all of its fiscal year 2014.

Overall, the numbers seem mixed in the short term, but the outlook is positive for investors who are willing to wait. As the CEO previously mentioned, Celgene is at an inflection point currently that could provide great upside. The highest analyst price target is $145.00, which indicates upside of 26.5%.

Shares of Celgene were up 1% at $114.89 in the first half of the trading day Monday. The stock has consensus analyst price target of $116.68 and a 52-week trading range of $66.85 to $119.84.

Celgene also made a brief appearance on CNBC in San Francisco, and the longer-term projections were said to not include any business development issues at all. If it makes acquisitions or goes into outside partnerships, those numbers would be added on to the report.

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