Health and Healthcare

Huge Buyout Highlights 4 Deutsche Bank Biotech Focus Stocks

Combine the upcoming typical summer weakness with howls of a biotech bubble, and the recipe is in place for trouble, even for the top stocks in the industry. In a new report, Deutsche Bank acknowledges that while the industry has shown recent weakness, now may be just the right time to add stocks than can outperform on a near-term basis or that have strong upside possibilities for the second half of 2015.

The Deutsche Bank team mentions not only the typical summer weakness in the sector, but they see possible continued weakness out of the first-quarter earnings reports from the large caps, as catalysts are lacking until the second half of the year and investor focus shifts to pipeline over earnings.

Four biotech focus stocks are mentioned as solid buys for investors now. They are AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV), Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN), BioMarin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BMRN) and Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG).

AbbVie

This company is a global, research-based biopharmaceutical company formed in 2013, following a separation from Abbott Laboratories. The company’s mission is to use its expertise, dedicated people and unique approach to innovation to develop and market advanced therapies that address some of the world’s most complex and serious diseases. AbbVie employs more than 26,000 people worldwide and markets medicines in more than 170 countries

The company reported outstanding first-quarter earnings as Humira sales continued on a torrid pace. Larry Robbins from Glenview Capital said just this week he believes that the stock is trading relatively “cheap” and that AbbVie’s pipeline is underappreciated, as it will be difficult for competitors to make a generic version of its Humira, a drug to treat rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn disease.

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The Deutsche Bank team points to numerous clinical read-outs for the stock over the rest of 2015. They also think that over time the stock could have anywhere from $15 to $25 per share upside from current levels.

AbbVie investors are paid a very solid 3.3% dividend. The Deutsche Bank price target is a stunning $80. The Thomson/First Call consensus target is lower at $72.09. Shares closed Tuesday at $63.86.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals

The rumors have flown for some time that this stock was considered as a potential acquisition target, and now the company has announced a huge deal to buy Synageva Biopharma Corp. (NASDAQ: GEVA) for a whopping $8.4 billion in cash and stock. This will add products and pipeline to compliment Soliris, its only marketed product. Soliris is prescribed for the treatment of patients with myasthenia gravis (MG), a rare neurological disorder, which reportedly affects an estimated 13,600 people in the United States.

Alexion’s net product sales climbed 6% year over year in the first quarter to $600.3 million. First-quarter 2014 revenues included reimbursement of $87.8 million from shipments in prior years related to an agreement with the French government, excluding which net product sales increased approximately 25% in the reported quarter. Despite actually missing analysts’ earnings estimates for the quarter, the company did keep full-year estimates unchanged.

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The Deutsche Bank team said the while the near-term focus is on competition in the complement arena, the stock could have a strong second half of 2015 as more pipeline sales are realized.

The Deutsche Bank price target is $215, and the consensus target is $214.52. Shares closed Tuesday at $168.55. The stock traded down more than 10% early Wednesday on the announcement of the acquisition as the risk arbitrage desks around Wall Street put on their trades.

BioMarin Pharmaceuticals

This company develops and commercializes innovative biopharmaceuticals for serious diseases and medical conditions. The company’s product portfolio consists of five approved products and multiple clinical and preclinical product candidates. Many Wall Street analysts feel that while BioMarin has an attractive pipeline, and the Deutsche Bank team says a takeout value of $194 to $217 could be viable if the top three clinical trials, including one for hemophilia, are positive.

Over the past decade, BioMarin has become one of the top orphan drug companies, and it looks poised to stay there. The company is expected to post around $875 million in revenue this year and possibly around $1.1 billion next year, following the approval of Vimizim, an enzyme replacement therapy for Morquio syndrome. The Deutsche Bank analysts note that the company could have big readouts this year, and they only need three of the five expected to work.

Deutsche Bank has a $140 price target, while consensus estimate is $128.16. The stock closed on Tuesday at $113.92 per share.

ALSO READ: 2 Biotech Buyout Candidates as Antibiotics Stop Working

Celgene

This is one of the Wall Street’s top picks for this year, as many analysts feel this large cap stock has solid upside potential for 2015 and an outstanding partnered pipeline. Some think the company can grow earnings 20% or more this year and 2016. The company recently provided strong guidance surrounding its Otezla launch and encouraging feedback from doctors on the potential of new triplet regimens in myeloma. Many on Wall Street see the company working to diversify away from the flagship product through the emerging inflammation and immunology franchise, as well as a rich pipeline of alliances.

Celgene reported first-quarter earnings with Revlimid revenue slightly beating estimates, despite a $22 million currency headwind, mainly driven by longer treatment duration in the United States. Total revenues for the quarter were down slightly, partly due to a 1.6% negative currency impact after partial hedging. The company did reaffirm overall 2015 guidance and noted Revlimid sales would be at the high end or above its previous guidance.

The Deutsche Bank team sees continued Revlimid growth into next year, but some near-term headline risk is still associated with the stock over European patent hearings. Most analysts do not believe the European hearing will have much impact on U.S. patents.

The Deutsche Bank price target is $160, and the consensus objective is $138.17. The shares ended the day Tuesday at $107.54.

ALSO READ: Top Credit Suisse Major Pharma Stock Picks to Buy

While the near-term going could be a little rough, the long-term outlook for all these focus stocks at Deutsche Bank make very good sense for investors with aggressive growth portfolios.

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