Health and Healthcare
4 Large Cap Biotech Stocks to Buy Before Earnings
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The biotech industry has been on an outstanding run over the past year, and some top analysts on Wall Street think that run could be poised to continue. A new research report from Cowen focuses on the top stocks to buy before second-quarter earnings are reported. It can be a little risky to buy stock in from of earnings data, as there is always a chance of a straight miss, poor forward guidance or both. The Cowen team is sticking with some of the industry big boys, which tend to smooth out some of the potential downside risk.
We screened the Cowen list for the four that they are very bullish on in front of the second-quarter prints.
Amgen
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) posted outstanding first-quarter results and the biotech giant remains a top stock for investors to buy. First-quarter 2015 earnings were $2.48 per share, soaring above consensus estimate of $2.07 and the year-ago earnings of $1.86. Total revenues increased 11.3% to $5,033 million in the first quarter, and the stellar earnings were driven by higher revenues and lower operating expenses.
Many on Wall Street point to the company’s tremendous pipeline and outstanding forward earnings and revenue capabilities. Amgen’s double-digit earnings and revenue growth rate is expected to continue for the foreseeable future because of the company’s very deep clinical pipeline, which include potential blockbusters Repatha for high cholesterol and Kyprolis for relapsed multiple myeloma. Amgen also has one of the industry’s deepest biosimilar pipelines, which is expected to generate upward of $3 billion in annual sales in the years ahead.
Amgen continues to trim its gigantic workforce as it bows to activist hedge fund shareholders. One of them is hedge fund manager Dan Loeb, whose Third Point raised its stake in Amgen to $1.7 billion. Loeb has been pushing the biotech giant to split into two separate companies to boost shareholder value.
This is a Cowen favorite and the analyst is expecting an earnings beat and a guidance raise. It also expects top and bottom line upside driven by Enbrel (with an additional price hike thrown in for good measure) as well as most other products and solid cost controls. The Cowen team sees Amgen trading multiplewise more like a large cap pharmaceutical than a biotech. Amgen reports July 30.
Amgen shareholders are paid a 1.95% dividend. The Cowen price target for the stock is $189, and the Thomson/First Call consensus price target is $178.53. Shares closed Friday at $163.27.
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Alexion Pharmaceuticals
The rumors have flown for some time that Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN) has been considered by some firms as a potential acquisition target, and in the spring it was the big buyer. The company announced a huge deal when it bought Synageva Biopharma for a whopping $8.4 billion in cash and stock. That move added products and pipeline to compliment Soliris, the company’s only marketed product. Soliris is prescribed for the treatment of patients with myasthenia gravis, a rare neurological disorder that reportedly affects an estimated 13,600 people in the United States.
Alexion’s net product sales climbed 6% year over year in the first quarter to $600.3 million. First-quarter 2014 revenues included reimbursement of $87.8 million from shipments in prior years related to an agreement with the French government, excluding which net product sales increased approximately 25% in the reported quarter. Despite actually missing analysts’ earnings estimates for the quarter, the company did keep full-year estimates unchanged.
The Cowen team is above Wall Street estimates for second-quarter Soliris sales, and despite the potential for some added expense due to the Synageva acquisition, they are positive on the company making current estimates. They also cite three huge new clinical trials for Soliris to be used for additional medical conditions. The company also reports on July 30.
The Cowen price target is $216, and the consensus target is $218.56. Shares closed Friday at $204.30.
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BioMarin Pharmaceuticals
This company is one of the two Cowen favorites before earnings are announced. BioMarin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BMRN) develops and commercializes innovative biopharmaceuticals for serious diseases and medical conditions. The company’s product portfolio comprises five approved products and multiple clinical and preclinical product candidates. Many Wall Street analysts feel that BioMarin has an attractive pipeline, and a takeout value of $194 to $217 per share could be viable if the top clinical trials are positive.
Over the past decade, BioMarin has become one of the top orphan drug companies, and it looks poised to stay there. The company is expected to post around $875 million in revenue this year and possibly around $1.1 billion next year, following the approval of Vimizim, an enzyme replacement therapy for Morquio syndrome.
The Cowen analysts note the company could have big readouts this year, and they expect continued solid performance from BioMarin’s marketed products. They cite Vimizim in particular, which has had a strong launch, consistently beating consensus estimates, and the analysts anticipate revenue for the quarter at least in line with the current estimates and Wall Street consensus. The analysts note that as the drisapersen FDA advisory committee review approaches, they think investor focus will start shifting from the performance of Vimizim’s launch, to drisapersen’s prospects for approval, which appear to be good at this point. BioMarin reports earnings on August 3.
Cowen has a $150 price target for the stock, while consensus estimate is at $148.59. The stock closed on Friday at $149.09.
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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
This stock remains one of the favorites among portfolio managers and is the other Cowen favorite going into earnings. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) has been a performance monster over the past two years, and most Wall Street firms expect it to stay one. With treatments for everything from macular degeneration to colorectal cancer, the company continues to exploit an extraordinary pipeline.
The analysts are positive on the company’s prospects for solid but perhaps not spectacular Eylea growth, and others on Wall Street cite alirocumab, which is another new cholesterol drug with big expected upside. Dupilumab sales could peak at $10 billion a year, assuming $6 billion from the AD indication, with the remainder coming from asthma and nasal polyposis, for which the drug is also being tested.
The bottom line is the company has a large pipeline and sales are ratcheting up. Cowen’s well-respected analyst Phil Nadeau thinks the company could surprise to the upside and is above Wall Street estimates for revenues, but lower for earnings per share. Regeneron reports on August 4.
Cowen rates the stock Market Perform with a rather surprising $450 price target, despite being very positive into the reporting. The consensus price target is much higher at $521. The stock closed Friday way above that figure at $551.98.
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These are the big and expensive players, but for aggressive growth accounts, they make good sense in front of the second-quarter numbers. Stocks like these are also good long-term holds.
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