Could This New Deal Double Akebia Therapeutics?

Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: AKBA) led the bulls early on Monday following news of what looks like a big commercialization partnership in Asia. The company announced a development and commercialization agreement with Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma for vadadustat (formerly AKB-6548) in Japan and certain other countries in Asia.

Vadadustat is an oral therapy for the treatment of anemia related to chronic kidney disease (CKD).

In terms of the agreement, Mitsubishi will make payments totaling $100 million for costs associated with the global Phase 3 program for vadadustat, including $40 million at the signing. Additionally, Akebia is eligible to receive up to roughly $250 million in additional milestone payments, subject to the achievement of certain development and sales milestones.

Mitsubishi will also make tiered royalty payments, from low teens up to 20%, on sales of vadadustat in Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, India and other Asian countries.

Because Akebia only has a market cap of roughly $300 million, if it got the maximum amount of cash from this deal, the company would effectively double its market cap.
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John P. Butler, president and CEO of Akebia, commented on the agreement:

Vadadustat offers a new paradigm for the treatment of anemia for CKD patients. This partnership with MTPC validates vadadustat’s therapeutic potential and helps ensure that its potential is realized in Asia. MTPC is one of the largest, most successful pharmaceutical companies in Japan with a substantial presence in these Asian markets. They are committed to the development and commercialization of innovative products, with a strategic focus on products for renal disease and diabetes, making them an ideal partner for Akebia.

Mitsubishi CEO Masayuki Mitsuka added:

A safer treatment for managing anemia related to chronic kidney disease remains a significant unmet need globally. We see great potential in vadadustat to advance the care of chronic kidney disease patients. We look forward to our collaboration with Akebia.

As 2015 is coming to a close, Akebia has underperformed the markets, with the stock down 16% year to date (to Thursday’s close). Over the past 52 weeks, the stock is down 12%.

Shares of Akebia closed Friday down 3.6% at $9.75, with a consensus analyst price target of $20.17 and a 52-week trading range of $5.91 to $14.20. Following the announcement, shares shot up 23% to $12.00 in early trading indications on Monday.