According to the Bing COVID-19 Tracker, the number of global cases has reached 3,845,607. Active cases hit 2,293,113, which is 52,751 higher than yesterday. Recovered cases rose by 37,515 to 1,282,930. Deaths reached 269,564, up by 5,733. At the current rate, deaths will reach 280,000 in a little over a week.

Total COVID-19 confirmed cases in the United States hit 1,289,235, which is 34% of the world’s total. Active cases surged by 25,689 to 1,038,001, while recovered cases reached 174,697, up 3,838 in a day.

Unfortunately, the growth in active cases is about three times the recovered ones. That means death counts likely will continue to remain high. Fatal cases count in American has hit 76,537, a gain of 1,956 and 28% of the world’s figure. If the daily death rate does not drop from current levels, U.S. deaths will reach 80,000 in two days.

Close to 80,000 American Deaths, and the Models

The government’s forecast that deaths would number 60,000, or 66,000, depending on when this data were released, is now at least a week old. Forecasts that range between 100,000 and 200,000 before the end of the first week in August are much more likely.

Among the best-known models is one from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Its current forecast is 135,000 deaths in the U.S by August. The MIT Sloan School of Management has a model that is used often. So does the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. One that has shown among the most pessimist figures comes from the Imperial College of London.

No matter how sophisticated these models are, the results are only as good as the inputs. Scientists will have to consider what social distancing, testing and the virulence of the disease are, at least. Also, how many uncounted cases there are. A modest change in any of these can make a large difference in the output.

Russia Becomes More Troubled

Cases in Russia, which was not hit as early as the United States or Western Europe, have started to surge. It has climbed the list of nations with confirmed cases to the fifth spot. Russia has 187,859 confirmed cases, as active cases have started to spike. A gain of 7,894 in a day brought active cases to 159,528. Deaths rose by 98 to 1,723. The death toll is still far below those of Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom, each of which is above 25,000.

The Moscow Times reports that Russia is second only to the United States as measured by the number of new cases a day. Moscow’s mayor said the figures are actually twice that. The problem of undercounting has dogged measures of cases in most countries.

If the Russian case increases mirror those in Europe and America, they will continue to rise rapidly, and along with them, deaths.

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