It looks like the NAHB survey of homebuilders are again feeling a bit “less-bad” than in recent surveys. The survey for July shows a reading of 17, up from 15 in June. The boost reflects more confidence in new single-family housing, but the building community is still concerned about jobless data and unemployment. The homebuilder ETFs, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB) and the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (NYSE: ITB) are up but have not shown any sharp reactions to the news.
This increase looks to be fourth bump up in six months, but the median home prices are still down as housing supply and foreclosures are acting as huge overhangs.
The current sales conditions rose to 17 in July, up from 14 in June. The traffic of prospective buyers component also rose to 14 in July, up from 13 in June. Interestingly enough, builders are not getting more optimistic for tomorrow as the sales expectations component that measures expected sales over the next six months came in flat at 26 in July. This survey was of 484 homebuilders.
To show how these are merely just “less-bad” you need to consider that the reading of 50 is the breakeven level between what is good (above 50) and what is bad (under 50). We are no at roughly three years in the sub-50 arena.
SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) is up 1.3% at $12.06and the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (NYSE: ITB) is up 0.4% at $9.96.
JON C. OGG
JULY 16, 2009
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