The U.S. market for housing has improved since the collapse of 2007 to the degree that home prices continue rising to record levels in many areas while for-sale inventory remains low. The most recent data point came in Wednesday morning’s second-quarter GDP report, which noted that residential fixed investment declined quarter over quarter.
Not all housing markets are equal, however. In some markets where prices fell the most and have since risen sharply, there are high levels of home flipping and fraud, as well as house price growth far outpacing rental cost growth.
In fact, the health of eight Florida metro areas that were hard hit by the housing collapse are rated high-risk areas in the latest CoreLogic Market Health Indicator. Scores reflect affordability as measured by the correlation between home prices and income levels, as well as the difference in cost between buying and renting, higher flipping rates and higher fraud rates.
According to CoreLogic the 10 least healthy of the top 100 U.S. housing markets, along with their home price index growth since 2012, rent growth, flipping index and fraud index rank are the following.
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Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Florida
> Home price growth: 59%
> Rent price growth: 29%
> Flipping index rank: 21st
> Fraud index rank: 1st
Jacksonville, Florida
> Home price growth: 41%
> Rent price growth: 18%
> Flipping index rank: 33rd
> Fraud index rank: 13th
Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida
> Home price growth: 53%
> Rent price growth: 29%
> Flipping index rank: 29th
> Fraud index rank: 12th
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Florida
> Home price growth: 63%
> Rent price growth: 27%
> Flipping index rank: 24th
> Fraud index rank: 2nd
New Orleans-Metairie, Louisiana
> Home price growth: 36%
> Rent price growth: 19%
> Flipping index rank: 27th
> Fraud index rank: 17th
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Florida
> Home price growth: 57%
> Rent price growth: 31%
> Flipping index rank: 10th
> Fraud index rank: 14th
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Florida
> Home price growth: 62%
> Rent price growth: 37%
> Flipping index rank: 6th
> Fraud index rank: 18th
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, California
> Home price growth: 69%
> Rent price growth: 24%
> Flipping index rank: 41st
> Fraud index rank: 44th
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida
> Home price growth: 52%
> Rent price growth: 23%
> Flipping index rank: 7th
> Fraud index rank: 8th
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, Florida
> Home price growth: 60%
> Rent price growth: 32%
> Flipping index rank: 42nd
> Fraud index rank: 3rd
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By contrast, below are the 10 healthiest of the top 100 U.S. housing markets. In these markets the difference between 2012 home prices and rental prices are narrower (or even reversed) and the rankings for flipping and fraud are much lower:
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, New York
> Home price growth: 8%
> Rent price growth: 12%
> Flipping index rank: 59th
> Fraud index rank: 73rd
Boston, Massachusetts
> Home price growth: 42%
> Rent price growth: 29%
> Flipping index rank: 92nd
> Fraud index rank: 81st
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, Massachusetts
> Home price growth: 39%
> Rent price growth: 30%
> Flipping index rank: 90th
> Fraud index rank: 80th
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, South Carolina
> Home price growth: 29%
> Rent price growth: 35%
> Flipping index rank: 53rd
> Fraud index rank: 60th
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Louisville/Jefferson County, Kentucky-Indiana
> Home price growth: 25%
> Rent price growth: 18%
> Flipping index rank: 46th
> Fraud index rank: 87th
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wisconsin
> Home price growth: 21%
> Rent price growth: 38%
> Flipping index rank: 52nd
> Fraud index rank: 98th
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
> Home price growth: 16%
> Rent price growth: 23%
> Flipping index rank: 65th
> Fraud index rank: 64th
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
> Home price growth: 20%
> Rent price growth: 16%
> Flipping index rank: 89th
> Fraud index rank: 91st
Raleigh, North Carolina
> Home price growth: 27%
> Rent price growth: 17%
> Flipping index rank: 87th
> Fraud index rank: 76th
Winston-Salem, North Carolina
> Home price growth: 19%
> Rent price growth: 14%
> Flipping index rank: 76th
> Fraud index rank: 61st
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